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icon for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

icon for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 46%

1 (25 bps) 32%

2 (50 bps) 12%

3 (75 bps) 3.0%

Polymarket

$135,706 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 46%

1 (25 bps) 32%

2 (50 bps) 12%

3 (75 bps) 3.0%

Polymarket

$135,706 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$59,230 Vol.

46%

1 (25 bps)

$19,212 Vol.

32%

2 (50 bps)

$32,523 Vol.

12%

3 (75 bps)

$13,121 Vol.

3%

4 (100 bps)

$5,390 Vol.

1%

5+ (125+ bps)

$6,230 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6% has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 46% market-implied probability of zero rate hikes this year from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Persistent elevation above the 2% goal, resilient labor market conditions, and hawkish FOMC communications—including the June dot plot with nine participants favoring at least one 25 basis point increase—underpin the 31.5% odds of a single hike. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices earlier in the year shifted trader sentiment from anticipated cuts toward hikes, though moderating inflation readings have since narrowed that gap. The July CPI release on August 12 and September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$135,706
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6% has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 46% market-implied probability of zero rate hikes this year from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Persistent elevation above the 2% goal, resilient labor market conditions, and hawkish FOMC communications—including the June dot plot with nine participants favoring at least one 25 basis point increase—underpin the 31.5% odds of a single hike. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices earlier in the year shifted trader sentiment from anticipated cuts toward hikes, though moderating inflation readings have since narrowed that gap. The July CPI release on August 12 and September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$135,706
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 6 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "0 (0 bps)" di 46%, diikuti oleh "1 (25 bps)" di 32%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 46¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 46% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $135.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jun 23, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?," jelajahi 6 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" adalah "0 (0 bps)" di 46%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 46% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "1 (25 bps)" di 32%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.