Recent soft July CPI data showing 3.4% headline inflation and 2.5% core, alongside a weaker-than-expected jobs report with 4.1% unemployment, have eased near-term rate hike expectations and positioned zero additional 2026 increases as the market-implied favorite at 54%. Traders are interpreting the data as supporting a hold at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, with futures now assigning only about a 38% chance of a move higher, down from prior levels near 50-67%. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and Chairman Warsh reducing forward guidance, the market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that inflation moderation and labor softening may keep the Fed on hold through the remaining 2026 meetings despite the target remaining above 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15-16 FOMC decision, which could shift pricing if data surprises higher.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 54%
2 (50 bps) 22%
1 (25 bps) 18%
3 (75 bps) 3.5%
$190,933 Vol.
$190,933 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
54%
1 (25 bps)
18%
2 (50 bps)
22%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 54%
2 (50 bps) 22%
1 (25 bps) 18%
3 (75 bps) 3.5%
$190,933 Vol.
$190,933 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$76,918 Vol.
54%
1 (25 bps)
$26,799 Vol.
18%
2 (50 bps)
$47,677 Vol.
22%
3 (75 bps)
$21,307 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$9,132 Vol.
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$9,101 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent soft July CPI data showing 3.4% headline inflation and 2.5% core, alongside a weaker-than-expected jobs report with 4.1% unemployment, have eased near-term rate hike expectations and positioned zero additional 2026 increases as the market-implied favorite at 54%. Traders are interpreting the data as supporting a hold at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, with futures now assigning only about a 38% chance of a move higher, down from prior levels near 50-67%. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and Chairman Warsh reducing forward guidance, the market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that inflation moderation and labor softening may keep the Fed on hold through the remaining 2026 meetings despite the target remaining above 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15-16 FOMC decision, which could shift pricing if data surprises higher.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$190,933Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent soft July CPI data showing 3.4% headline inflation and 2.5% core, alongside a weaker-than-expected jobs report with 4.1% unemployment, have eased near-term rate hike expectations and positioned zero additional 2026 increases as the market-implied favorite at 54%. Traders are interpreting the data as supporting a hold at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, with futures now assigning only about a 38% chance of a move higher, down from prior levels near 50-67%. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and Chairman Warsh reducing forward guidance, the market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that inflation moderation and labor softening may keep the Fed on hold through the remaining 2026 meetings despite the target remaining above 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15-16 FOMC decision, which could shift pricing if data surprises higher.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$190,933Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent soft July CPI data showing 3.4% headline inflation and 2.5% core, alongside a weaker-than-expected jobs report with 4.1% unemployment, have eased near-term rate hike expectations and positioned zero additional 2026 increases as the market-implied favorite at 54%. Traders are interpreting the data as supporting a hold at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, with futures now assigning only about a 38% chance of a move higher, down from prior levels near 50-67%. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and Chairman Warsh reducing forward guidance, the market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that inflation moderation and labor softening may keep the Fed on hold through the remaining 2026 meetings despite the target remaining above 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release on September 11 and the September 15-16 FOMC decision, which could shift pricing if data surprises higher.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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