Recent June CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, alongside the July FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Trader sentiment reflects a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and resilient growth, which has shifted consensus toward a higher-for-longer stance despite the energy-driven moderation in prices. Upcoming July CPI and employment releases, due before the September FOMC, represent key catalysts that could influence whether the modest 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike gain traction or remain contained. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket continues to price in policy stability through year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 69%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$453,970 Vol.
$453,970 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
69%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 69%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$453,970 Vol.
$453,970 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$99,926 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$102,851 Vol.
5%
No change
$102,435 Vol.
69%
25 bps increase
$107,565 Vol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$41,193 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent June CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, alongside the July FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Trader sentiment reflects a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and resilient growth, which has shifted consensus toward a higher-for-longer stance despite the energy-driven moderation in prices. Upcoming July CPI and employment releases, due before the September FOMC, represent key catalysts that could influence whether the modest 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike gain traction or remain contained. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket continues to price in policy stability through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$453,970Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent June CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, alongside the July FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Trader sentiment reflects a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and resilient growth, which has shifted consensus toward a higher-for-longer stance despite the energy-driven moderation in prices. Upcoming July CPI and employment releases, due before the September FOMC, represent key catalysts that could influence whether the modest 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike gain traction or remain contained. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket continues to price in policy stability through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$453,970Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, alongside the July FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Trader sentiment reflects a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and resilient growth, which has shifted consensus toward a higher-for-longer stance despite the energy-driven moderation in prices. Upcoming July CPI and employment releases, due before the September FOMC, represent key catalysts that could influence whether the modest 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike gain traction or remain contained. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket continues to price in policy stability through year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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