The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% following its July 28–29, 2026 meeting, with futures markets now assigning only modest odds of a September cut and higher probabilities to a 25 basis point hike. July 2026 CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year (core 2.5%), down modestly from June but still well above the 2% target, while energy price relief has slowed. This data, combined with the June dot plot showing several participants penciling in 2026 hikes, has shifted trader consensus away from near-term easing toward a prolonged pause or modest tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, which will feature updated economic projections.