Traders price a 97.2% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will avoid incarceration before 2027, driven by the complete absence of criminal charges, indictments, or credible legal exposure. Powell’s term has centered on calibrating the federal funds rate against inflation trajectories and labor-market data, with no documented misconduct that would trigger prosecution under federal statutes. Institutional norms and historical precedent for central-bank leadership reinforce this outcome, as past officials have faced only civil or congressional oversight. Limited tail risks could arise from post-2026 regulatory shifts or partisan investigations, though such developments would require extraordinary political realignment to materially alter the current market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
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Dec 31, 2026
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BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders price a 97.2% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will avoid incarceration before 2027, driven by the complete absence of criminal charges, indictments, or credible legal exposure. Powell’s term has centered on calibrating the federal funds rate against inflation trajectories and labor-market data, with no documented misconduct that would trigger prosecution under federal statutes. Institutional norms and historical precedent for central-bank leadership reinforce this outcome, as past officials have faced only civil or congressional oversight. Limited tail risks could arise from post-2026 regulatory shifts or partisan investigations, though such developments would require extraordinary political realignment to materially alter the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$3,538Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders price a 97.2% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will avoid incarceration before 2027, driven by the complete absence of criminal charges, indictments, or credible legal exposure. Powell’s term has centered on calibrating the federal funds rate against inflation trajectories and labor-market data, with no documented misconduct that would trigger prosecution under federal statutes. Institutional norms and historical precedent for central-bank leadership reinforce this outcome, as past officials have faced only civil or congressional oversight. Limited tail risks could arise from post-2026 regulatory shifts or partisan investigations, though such developments would require extraordinary political realignment to materially alter the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,538Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price a 97.2% probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will avoid incarceration before 2027, driven by the complete absence of criminal charges, indictments, or credible legal exposure. Powell’s term has centered on calibrating the federal funds rate against inflation trajectories and labor-market data, with no documented misconduct that would trigger prosecution under federal statutes. Institutional norms and historical precedent for central-bank leadership reinforce this outcome, as past officials have faced only civil or congressional oversight. Limited tail risks could arise from post-2026 regulatory shifts or partisan investigations, though such developments would require extraordinary political realignment to materially alter the current market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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