Recent inflation data showing PCE readings near 4% amid elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions have shifted market-implied odds toward policy restraint or modest tightening by early 2027, with the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range serving as the baseline. Stable labor market conditions, including unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, reduce urgency for easing while allowing the FOMC to prioritize price stability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 57.5% probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting, aligns with expectations that recent hawkish communications and September projections will keep rates on hold through year-end absent further disinflation. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and employment reports plus the December FOMC dot plot, which could alter the balance between the 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike and lower probabilities for cuts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 57%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 9%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$76,541 Vol.
$76,541 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
57%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 57%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 9%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$76,541 Vol.
$76,541 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$14,016 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$18,445 Vol.
9%
No change
$21,495 Vol.
57%
25 bps increase
$17,235 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$5,349 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data showing PCE readings near 4% amid elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions have shifted market-implied odds toward policy restraint or modest tightening by early 2027, with the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range serving as the baseline. Stable labor market conditions, including unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, reduce urgency for easing while allowing the FOMC to prioritize price stability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 57.5% probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting, aligns with expectations that recent hawkish communications and September projections will keep rates on hold through year-end absent further disinflation. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and employment reports plus the December FOMC dot plot, which could alter the balance between the 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike and lower probabilities for cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$76,541Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 27, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data showing PCE readings near 4% amid elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions have shifted market-implied odds toward policy restraint or modest tightening by early 2027, with the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range serving as the baseline. Stable labor market conditions, including unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, reduce urgency for easing while allowing the FOMC to prioritize price stability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 57.5% probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting, aligns with expectations that recent hawkish communications and September projections will keep rates on hold through year-end absent further disinflation. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and employment reports plus the December FOMC dot plot, which could alter the balance between the 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike and lower probabilities for cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$76,541Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 27, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data showing PCE readings near 4% amid elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions have shifted market-implied odds toward policy restraint or modest tightening by early 2027, with the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range serving as the baseline. Stable labor market conditions, including unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and steady job gains, reduce urgency for easing while allowing the FOMC to prioritize price stability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 57.5% probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting, aligns with expectations that recent hawkish communications and September projections will keep rates on hold through year-end absent further disinflation. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and employment reports plus the December FOMC dot plot, which could alter the balance between the 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike and lower probabilities for cuts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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