Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces heightened scrutiny at the September 16 FOMC press conference following hotter-than-expected August CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation and core measures above the 2% PCE target. Oil prices above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions have reinforced market-implied odds near 85-90% for a 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75-4% federal funds range, testing Warsh’s Jackson Hole emphasis on inflation returning “clearly and at sufficient speed.” Traders will focus on any clarification of the Fed’s reaction function and data thresholds after July’s communications shortfalls, with 10-year Treasury yields near 5% reflecting sensitivity to policy signals versus White House preferences for lower rates.