Recent July 2026 employment data released August 7 showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% from 4.2% in June alongside a surprise -23,000 nonfarm payroll decline, reflecting labor force contraction rather than broad hiring gains and pushing market-implied odds toward 4.1% or 4.2% for August. Trader sentiment remains split as leading outcomes sit in the mid-30% range amid uncertainty over whether participation rates stabilize or job growth rebounds modestly before the September 4 release. Key swing factors include August payroll trends, weekly jobless claims, and any revisions to prior months that could shift the seasonal baseline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4.1% 37%
4.2% 28%
4.0% 19%
4.3% 9%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
2%
3.9%
2%
4.0%
19%
4.1%
37%
4.2%
28%
4.3%
9%
4.4%
7%
4.5%
4%
≥4.6%
2%
4.1% 37%
4.2% 28%
4.0% 19%
4.3% 9%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$90 Vol.
2%
3.9%
$81 Vol.
2%
4.0%
$429 Vol.
19%
4.1%
$2,010 Vol.
37%
4.2%
$768 Vol.
28%
4.3%
$266 Vol.
9%
4.4%
$113 Vol.
7%
4.5%
$112 Vol.
4%
≥4.6%
$92 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data released August 7 showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% from 4.2% in June alongside a surprise -23,000 nonfarm payroll decline, reflecting labor force contraction rather than broad hiring gains and pushing market-implied odds toward 4.1% or 4.2% for August. Trader sentiment remains split as leading outcomes sit in the mid-30% range amid uncertainty over whether participation rates stabilize or job growth rebounds modestly before the September 4 release. Key swing factors include August payroll trends, weekly jobless claims, and any revisions to prior months that could shift the seasonal baseline.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$3,961Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data released August 7 showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% from 4.2% in June alongside a surprise -23,000 nonfarm payroll decline, reflecting labor force contraction rather than broad hiring gains and pushing market-implied odds toward 4.1% or 4.2% for August. Trader sentiment remains split as leading outcomes sit in the mid-30% range amid uncertainty over whether participation rates stabilize or job growth rebounds modestly before the September 4 release. Key swing factors include August payroll trends, weekly jobless claims, and any revisions to prior months that could shift the seasonal baseline.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$3,961Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 employment data released August 7 showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% from 4.2% in June alongside a surprise -23,000 nonfarm payroll decline, reflecting labor force contraction rather than broad hiring gains and pushing market-implied odds toward 4.1% or 4.2% for August. Trader sentiment remains split as leading outcomes sit in the mid-30% range amid uncertainty over whether participation rates stabilize or job growth rebounds modestly before the September 4 release. Key swing factors include August payroll trends, weekly jobless claims, and any revisions to prior months that could shift the seasonal baseline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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