Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.1% implied probability for Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation to fall in the 2.5–2.9% range, closely trailed by 41.9% for 1.5–1.9%, reflecting split sentiment amid recent volatility. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, propelled by gasoline prices surging on Middle East tensions including the Iran conflict, though core measures continued easing. The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report upgraded its 2026 average inflation forecast to 2.3%—up 0.3 percentage points from January—while holding the policy rate at 2.25%, citing temporary energy effects and moderate growth. April CPI data, due around May 20, and the June 10 rate decision loom as pivotal catalysts for shifting these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 46.9%
3.5-3.9% 30.6%
3.0-3.4% 21.0%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
$16,406 Vol.
$16,406 Vol.
<1.0%
23%
1.0–1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
40%
2.0–2.4%
20%
2.5–2.9%
55%
3.0-3.4%
23%
3.5-3.9%
31%
4.0%+
30%
2.5–2.9% 46.9%
3.5-3.9% 30.6%
3.0-3.4% 21.0%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
$16,406 Vol.
$16,406 Vol.
<1.0%
23%
1.0–1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
40%
2.0–2.4%
20%
2.5–2.9%
55%
3.0-3.4%
23%
3.5-3.9%
31%
4.0%+
30%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.1% implied probability for Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation to fall in the 2.5–2.9% range, closely trailed by 41.9% for 1.5–1.9%, reflecting split sentiment amid recent volatility. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, propelled by gasoline prices surging on Middle East tensions including the Iran conflict, though core measures continued easing. The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report upgraded its 2026 average inflation forecast to 2.3%—up 0.3 percentage points from January—while holding the policy rate at 2.25%, citing temporary energy effects and moderate growth. April CPI data, due around May 20, and the June 10 rate decision loom as pivotal catalysts for shifting these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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