Recent softer-than-expected June 2026 core PCE at +0.1% month-over-month, versus +0.2% consensus and +0.3% in May, has left trader sentiment evenly split across the July bucket outcomes near 50% implied probability each. This reflects uncertainty around whether underlying inflation will reaccelerate amid resilient consumer spending, stable labor market conditions, and mixed signals from related releases such as the PCE price index. Market-implied odds treat the Fed’s preferred gauge as finely balanced between modest cooling and modest firming, with the August 26 BEA release serving as the immediate resolution catalyst. Broader context includes the latest annual core reading near 3.3% and expectations for gradual moderation toward the 2% target, though volatility in services prices and goods demand could shift the exact monthly print.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui≤-0.2% 50%
-0.1% 50%
0.0% 50%
0.1% 50%
BARU
BARU
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
50%
-0.1%
50%
0.0%
50%
0.1%
50%
0.2%
50%
0.3%
50%
0.4%+
50%
≤-0.2% 50%
-0.1% 50%
0.0% 50%
0.1% 50%
BARU
BARU
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
$0 Vol.
50%
-0.1%
$0 Vol.
50%
0.0%
$0 Vol.
50%
0.1%
$0 Vol.
50%
0.2%
$0 Vol.
50%
0.3%
$0 Vol.
50%
0.4%+
$0 Vol.
50%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent softer-than-expected June 2026 core PCE at +0.1% month-over-month, versus +0.2% consensus and +0.3% in May, has left trader sentiment evenly split across the July bucket outcomes near 50% implied probability each. This reflects uncertainty around whether underlying inflation will reaccelerate amid resilient consumer spending, stable labor market conditions, and mixed signals from related releases such as the PCE price index. Market-implied odds treat the Fed’s preferred gauge as finely balanced between modest cooling and modest firming, with the August 26 BEA release serving as the immediate resolution catalyst. Broader context includes the latest annual core reading near 3.3% and expectations for gradual moderation toward the 2% target, though volatility in services prices and goods demand could shift the exact monthly print.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent softer-than-expected June 2026 core PCE at +0.1% month-over-month, versus +0.2% consensus and +0.3% in May, has left trader sentiment evenly split across the July bucket outcomes near 50% implied probability each. This reflects uncertainty around whether underlying inflation will reaccelerate amid resilient consumer spending, stable labor market conditions, and mixed signals from related releases such as the PCE price index. Market-implied odds treat the Fed’s preferred gauge as finely balanced between modest cooling and modest firming, with the August 26 BEA release serving as the immediate resolution catalyst. Broader context includes the latest annual core reading near 3.3% and expectations for gradual moderation toward the 2% target, though volatility in services prices and goods demand could shift the exact monthly print.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softer-than-expected June 2026 core PCE at +0.1% month-over-month, versus +0.2% consensus and +0.3% in May, has left trader sentiment evenly split across the July bucket outcomes near 50% implied probability each. This reflects uncertainty around whether underlying inflation will reaccelerate amid resilient consumer spending, stable labor market conditions, and mixed signals from related releases such as the PCE price index. Market-implied odds treat the Fed’s preferred gauge as finely balanced between modest cooling and modest firming, with the August 26 BEA release serving as the immediate resolution catalyst. Broader context includes the latest annual core reading near 3.3% and expectations for gradual moderation toward the 2% target, though volatility in services prices and goods demand could shift the exact monthly print.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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