Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year yet remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, has anchored trader sentiment for Q3 around the 1.0–2.0% range. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026, amid a softening labor market where unemployment has risen toward 4.4%, reflects balanced risks between persistent price pressures and moderating demand. AI-driven investment and resilient consumer spending provide support, while tariff effects and slower immigration weigh on the outlook. With Q2 final estimates and monthly indicators due before quarter-end, the closely matched probabilities around 1.0–2.0% capture uncertainty over whether momentum stabilizes near trend or decelerates further.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui2.5–3.0% 53%
2.0–2.5% 50%
1.5–2.0% 47%
≥3.0% 47%
BARU
BARU
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
12%
0.5–1.0%
16%
1.0–1.5%
22%
1.5–2.0%
47%
2.0–2.5%
50%
2.5–3.0%
53%
≥3.0%
47%
2.5–3.0% 53%
2.0–2.5% 50%
1.5–2.0% 47%
≥3.0% 47%
BARU
BARU
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$0 Vol.
12%
0.5–1.0%
$0 Vol.
16%
1.0–1.5%
$0 Vol.
22%
1.5–2.0%
$0 Vol.
47%
2.0–2.5%
$0 Vol.
50%
2.5–3.0%
$0 Vol.
53%
≥3.0%
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year yet remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, has anchored trader sentiment for Q3 around the 1.0–2.0% range. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026, amid a softening labor market where unemployment has risen toward 4.4%, reflects balanced risks between persistent price pressures and moderating demand. AI-driven investment and resilient consumer spending provide support, while tariff effects and slower immigration weigh on the outlook. With Q2 final estimates and monthly indicators due before quarter-end, the closely matched probabilities around 1.0–2.0% capture uncertainty over whether momentum stabilizes near trend or decelerates further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year yet remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, has anchored trader sentiment for Q3 around the 1.0–2.0% range. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026, amid a softening labor market where unemployment has risen toward 4.4%, reflects balanced risks between persistent price pressures and moderating demand. AI-driven investment and resilient consumer spending provide support, while tariff effects and slower immigration weigh on the outlook. With Q2 final estimates and monthly indicators due before quarter-end, the closely matched probabilities around 1.0–2.0% capture uncertainty over whether momentum stabilizes near trend or decelerates further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year yet remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, has anchored trader sentiment for Q3 around the 1.0–2.0% range. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026, amid a softening labor market where unemployment has risen toward 4.4%, reflects balanced risks between persistent price pressures and moderating demand. AI-driven investment and resilient consumer spending provide support, while tariff effects and slower immigration weigh on the outlook. With Q2 final estimates and monthly indicators due before quarter-end, the closely matched probabilities around 1.0–2.0% capture uncertainty over whether momentum stabilizes near trend or decelerates further.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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