Recent weak first-quarter 2026 euro area GDP data, showing just 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion and 0.8 percent year-on-year growth, has anchored trader expectations near the 1.0-2.0 percent band, which commands 62.0 percent implied probability. Downward revisions from the ECB staff projection of 0.9 percent, the IMF’s April cut to 1.1 percent, and the OECD’s 0.8 percent forecast reflect persistent energy-price pressures and supply disruptions stemming from Middle East developments. These factors have lifted the 0-1.0 percent outcome to 27.3 percent while capping higher bands such as 2.0-3.0 percent at 11.0 percent. With the European Central Bank’s next policy meetings and June inflation releases ahead, market-implied odds continue to price modest recovery risks against the backdrop of subdued momentum and elevated uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1.0-2.0% 63%
0-1.0% 29.8%
2.0-3.0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
BARU
BARU
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
13%
0-1.0%
30%
1.0-2.0%
63%
2.0-3.0%
10%
3.0-4.0%
16%
4.0-5.0%
4%
5.0-6.0%
3%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%+
3%
1.0-2.0% 63%
0-1.0% 29.8%
2.0-3.0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
BARU
BARU
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
$792 Vol.
13%
0-1.0%
$636 Vol.
30%
1.0-2.0%
$1,474 Vol.
63%
2.0-3.0%
$638 Vol.
10%
3.0-4.0%
$567 Vol.
16%
4.0-5.0%
$1,540 Vol.
4%
5.0-6.0%
$631 Vol.
3%
6.0-7.0%
$1,323 Vol.
1%
7.0%+
$1,110 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak first-quarter 2026 euro area GDP data, showing just 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion and 0.8 percent year-on-year growth, has anchored trader expectations near the 1.0-2.0 percent band, which commands 62.0 percent implied probability. Downward revisions from the ECB staff projection of 0.9 percent, the IMF’s April cut to 1.1 percent, and the OECD’s 0.8 percent forecast reflect persistent energy-price pressures and supply disruptions stemming from Middle East developments. These factors have lifted the 0-1.0 percent outcome to 27.3 percent while capping higher bands such as 2.0-3.0 percent at 11.0 percent. With the European Central Bank’s next policy meetings and June inflation releases ahead, market-implied odds continue to price modest recovery risks against the backdrop of subdued momentum and elevated uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$8,712Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak first-quarter 2026 euro area GDP data, showing just 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion and 0.8 percent year-on-year growth, has anchored trader expectations near the 1.0-2.0 percent band, which commands 62.0 percent implied probability. Downward revisions from the ECB staff projection of 0.9 percent, the IMF’s April cut to 1.1 percent, and the OECD’s 0.8 percent forecast reflect persistent energy-price pressures and supply disruptions stemming from Middle East developments. These factors have lifted the 0-1.0 percent outcome to 27.3 percent while capping higher bands such as 2.0-3.0 percent at 11.0 percent. With the European Central Bank’s next policy meetings and June inflation releases ahead, market-implied odds continue to price modest recovery risks against the backdrop of subdued momentum and elevated uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,712Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent weak first-quarter 2026 euro area GDP data, showing just 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion and 0.8 percent year-on-year growth, has anchored trader expectations near the 1.0-2.0 percent band, which commands 62.0 percent implied probability. Downward revisions from the ECB staff projection of 0.9 percent, the IMF’s April cut to 1.1 percent, and the OECD’s 0.8 percent forecast reflect persistent energy-price pressures and supply disruptions stemming from Middle East developments. These factors have lifted the 0-1.0 percent outcome to 27.3 percent while capping higher bands such as 2.0-3.0 percent at 11.0 percent. With the European Central Bank’s next policy meetings and June inflation releases ahead, market-implied odds continue to price modest recovery risks against the backdrop of subdued momentum and elevated uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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