Brazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) odds center on subdued expansion near zero amid cooling domestic demand. Recent data show Q2 GDP rising 0.5% sequentially but with household consumption contracting 0.4%, while the central bank’s July IBC-Br activity index fell 0.2% month-over-month, led by agriculture and industry weakness. Still-elevated real interest rates near 9% after Selic cuts to 14% continue to weigh on debt servicing and investment, even as pre-election fiscal support fades and inflation remains above the 4.5% target ceiling. Outcomes above 0.5% would require stronger services or harvest rebounds offsetting these headwinds, whereas deeper contractions hinge on further consumption weakness or external shocks. The September 16 Copom decision and October elections represent near-term swing factors influencing trader pricing of quarterly momentum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0.0% to 0.2% 33%
-0.3% to -0.1% 18%
0.3% to 0.5% 17.9%
0.9% to 1.1% 5.1%
$12,858 Vol.
$12,858 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
5%
-0.3% to -0.1%
18%
0.0% to 0.2%
33%
0.3% to 0.5%
18%
0.6% to 0.8%
5%
0.9% to 1.1%
5%
≥1.2%
<1%
0.0% to 0.2% 33%
-0.3% to -0.1% 18%
0.3% to 0.5% 17.9%
0.9% to 1.1% 5.1%
$12,858 Vol.
$12,858 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
$225 Vol.
5%
-0.3% to -0.1%
$2,248 Vol.
18%
0.0% to 0.2%
$7,807 Vol.
33%
0.3% to 0.5%
$1,928 Vol.
18%
0.6% to 0.8%
$214 Vol.
5%
0.9% to 1.1%
$235 Vol.
5%
≥1.2%
$202 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) odds center on subdued expansion near zero amid cooling domestic demand. Recent data show Q2 GDP rising 0.5% sequentially but with household consumption contracting 0.4%, while the central bank’s July IBC-Br activity index fell 0.2% month-over-month, led by agriculture and industry weakness. Still-elevated real interest rates near 9% after Selic cuts to 14% continue to weigh on debt servicing and investment, even as pre-election fiscal support fades and inflation remains above the 4.5% target ceiling. Outcomes above 0.5% would require stronger services or harvest rebounds offsetting these headwinds, whereas deeper contractions hinge on further consumption weakness or external shocks. The September 16 Copom decision and October elections represent near-term swing factors influencing trader pricing of quarterly momentum.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$12,858Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) odds center on subdued expansion near zero amid cooling domestic demand. Recent data show Q2 GDP rising 0.5% sequentially but with household consumption contracting 0.4%, while the central bank’s July IBC-Br activity index fell 0.2% month-over-month, led by agriculture and industry weakness. Still-elevated real interest rates near 9% after Selic cuts to 14% continue to weigh on debt servicing and investment, even as pre-election fiscal support fades and inflation remains above the 4.5% target ceiling. Outcomes above 0.5% would require stronger services or harvest rebounds offsetting these headwinds, whereas deeper contractions hinge on further consumption weakness or external shocks. The September 16 Copom decision and October elections represent near-term swing factors influencing trader pricing of quarterly momentum.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$12,858Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) odds center on subdued expansion near zero amid cooling domestic demand. Recent data show Q2 GDP rising 0.5% sequentially but with household consumption contracting 0.4%, while the central bank’s July IBC-Br activity index fell 0.2% month-over-month, led by agriculture and industry weakness. Still-elevated real interest rates near 9% after Selic cuts to 14% continue to weigh on debt servicing and investment, even as pre-election fiscal support fades and inflation remains above the 4.5% target ceiling. Outcomes above 0.5% would require stronger services or harvest rebounds offsetting these headwinds, whereas deeper contractions hinge on further consumption weakness or external shocks. The September 16 Copom decision and October elections represent near-term swing factors influencing trader pricing of quarterly momentum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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