Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026, with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Vanguard, and Philadelphia Fed projecting 2.2–2.5% expansion driven by business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies and supportive fiscal measures. Recent BEA data show positive annualized growth of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 2026, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4% and resilient consumer spending despite elevated inflation around 3.4%. Traders price in this trajectory given above-trend activity and low recession odds near 20–30%. Tail risks include sharper-than-expected inflation spikes prompting aggressive monetary tightening, geopolitical energy shocks, or abrupt fiscal tightening that could tip growth below zero.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% peluang
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
4% peluang
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026, with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Vanguard, and Philadelphia Fed projecting 2.2–2.5% expansion driven by business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies and supportive fiscal measures. Recent BEA data show positive annualized growth of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 2026, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4% and resilient consumer spending despite elevated inflation around 3.4%. Traders price in this trajectory given above-trend activity and low recession odds near 20–30%. Tail risks include sharper-than-expected inflation spikes prompting aggressive monetary tightening, geopolitical energy shocks, or abrupt fiscal tightening that could tip growth below zero.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 29, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026, with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Vanguard, and Philadelphia Fed projecting 2.2–2.5% expansion driven by business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies and supportive fiscal measures. Recent BEA data show positive annualized growth of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 2026, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4% and resilient consumer spending despite elevated inflation around 3.4%. Traders price in this trajectory given above-trend activity and low recession odds near 20–30%. Tail risks include sharper-than-expected inflation spikes prompting aggressive monetary tightening, geopolitical energy shocks, or abrupt fiscal tightening that could tip growth below zero.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 29, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026, with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Vanguard, and Philadelphia Fed projecting 2.2–2.5% expansion driven by business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies and supportive fiscal measures. Recent BEA data show positive annualized growth of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2 2026, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4% and resilient consumer spending despite elevated inflation around 3.4%. Traders price in this trajectory given above-trend activity and low recession odds near 20–30%. Tail risks include sharper-than-expected inflation spikes prompting aggressive monetary tightening, geopolitical energy shocks, or abrupt fiscal tightening that could tip growth below zero.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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