Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from softening domestic demand after Q2’s upward revision to 1.4% annualized, where private consumption stayed flat and capital spending contracted despite stronger net exports and government outlays. With the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18 amid 1.9% headline inflation and tight labor markets near 2.5% unemployment, higher borrowing costs could further restrain household spending and investment. Resilient semiconductor and AI-related exports provide partial support, but elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments and a weaker yen around 157 per dollar add volatility. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 0–1.6% annualized ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether fiscal measures and wage gains can offset the drag from monetary tightening ahead of the November 15 preliminary release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0.8%–1.6% 28%
0.0%–0.8% 25.9%
-0.8%–0.0% 14%
2.4%–3.2% 5.9%
$27,078 Vol.
$27,078 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
14%
0.0%–0.8%
26%
0.8%–1.6%
28%
1.6%–2.4%
5%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 28%
0.0%–0.8% 25.9%
-0.8%–0.0% 14%
2.4%–3.2% 5.9%
$27,078 Vol.
$27,078 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$594 Vol.
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 Vol.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,543 Vol.
14%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,228 Vol.
26%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,795 Vol.
28%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Vol.
5%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,412 Vol.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,234 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from softening domestic demand after Q2’s upward revision to 1.4% annualized, where private consumption stayed flat and capital spending contracted despite stronger net exports and government outlays. With the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18 amid 1.9% headline inflation and tight labor markets near 2.5% unemployment, higher borrowing costs could further restrain household spending and investment. Resilient semiconductor and AI-related exports provide partial support, but elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments and a weaker yen around 157 per dollar add volatility. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 0–1.6% annualized ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether fiscal measures and wage gains can offset the drag from monetary tightening ahead of the November 15 preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$27,078Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from softening domestic demand after Q2’s upward revision to 1.4% annualized, where private consumption stayed flat and capital spending contracted despite stronger net exports and government outlays. With the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18 amid 1.9% headline inflation and tight labor markets near 2.5% unemployment, higher borrowing costs could further restrain household spending and investment. Resilient semiconductor and AI-related exports provide partial support, but elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments and a weaker yen around 157 per dollar add volatility. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 0–1.6% annualized ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether fiscal measures and wage gains can offset the drag from monetary tightening ahead of the November 15 preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$27,078Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from softening domestic demand after Q2’s upward revision to 1.4% annualized, where private consumption stayed flat and capital spending contracted despite stronger net exports and government outlays. With the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18 amid 1.9% headline inflation and tight labor markets near 2.5% unemployment, higher borrowing costs could further restrain household spending and investment. Resilient semiconductor and AI-related exports provide partial support, but elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments and a weaker yen around 157 per dollar add volatility. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 0–1.6% annualized ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether fiscal measures and wage gains can offset the drag from monetary tightening ahead of the November 15 preliminary release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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