Recent Bank of Japan action and inflation data anchor trader expectations for the October policy meeting. Following the September 18 rate increase to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, August core CPI eased to 1.7% year-over-year from 1.8%, reflecting energy subsidies and tempered price pressures. This outcome, combined with Prime Minister Takaichi’s preference for gradual normalization, supports the market-implied 83.5% probability of no change at the next meeting. A 25 basis point hike carries only 15.5% odds, as participants await fresh economic releases and any shift in underlying inflation trends before pricing in further tightening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,504 Vol.
$129,504 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
84%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,504 Vol.
$129,504 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$7,041 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$12,159 Vol.
<1%
No change
$43,946 Vol.
84%
25 bps increase
$45,851 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$20,508 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan action and inflation data anchor trader expectations for the October policy meeting. Following the September 18 rate increase to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, August core CPI eased to 1.7% year-over-year from 1.8%, reflecting energy subsidies and tempered price pressures. This outcome, combined with Prime Minister Takaichi’s preference for gradual normalization, supports the market-implied 83.5% probability of no change at the next meeting. A 25 basis point hike carries only 15.5% odds, as participants await fresh economic releases and any shift in underlying inflation trends before pricing in further tightening.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$129,504Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan action and inflation data anchor trader expectations for the October policy meeting. Following the September 18 rate increase to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, August core CPI eased to 1.7% year-over-year from 1.8%, reflecting energy subsidies and tempered price pressures. This outcome, combined with Prime Minister Takaichi’s preference for gradual normalization, supports the market-implied 83.5% probability of no change at the next meeting. A 25 basis point hike carries only 15.5% odds, as participants await fresh economic releases and any shift in underlying inflation trends before pricing in further tightening.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$129,504Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan action and inflation data anchor trader expectations for the October policy meeting. Following the September 18 rate increase to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, August core CPI eased to 1.7% year-over-year from 1.8%, reflecting energy subsidies and tempered price pressures. This outcome, combined with Prime Minister Takaichi’s preference for gradual normalization, supports the market-implied 83.5% probability of no change at the next meeting. A 25 basis point hike carries only 15.5% odds, as participants await fresh economic releases and any shift in underlying inflation trends before pricing in further tightening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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