Recent Middle East tensions and associated spikes in crude oil prices represent the dominant factor shaping trader views on Japan's Q2 2026 GDP, as higher energy costs erode corporate margins and household real income through deteriorated terms of trade. Q1 delivered a solid 0.5% QoQ expansion that exceeded consensus, buoyed by resilient private consumption and net exports, yet forecasters now anticipate moderation or outright contraction in Q2 amid these external headwinds. Bank of Japan projections and private surveys point to annualized quarterly growth clustering near 0% to 1%, reflecting ongoing wage gains and domestic demand support offset by inflation pressures and softer business investment. With leading market-implied probabilities tightly grouped between roughly -0.8% and 3.2%, outcomes hinge on incoming monthly indicators for industrial production, retail sales, and energy import costs ahead of the August preliminary release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3.2%–4.0% 50%
0.0%–0.8% 48%
-1.6%– -0.8% 48.0%
-2.4%– -1.6% 48%
BARU
BARU
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
39%
-2.4%– -1.6%
48%
-1.6%– -0.8%
48%
-0.8%–0.0%
47%
0.0%–0.8%
48%
0.8%–1.6%
39%
1.6%–2.4%
34%
2.4%–3.2%
47%
3.2%–4.0%
50%
4.0%+
47%
3.2%–4.0% 50%
0.0%–0.8% 48%
-1.6%– -0.8% 48.0%
-2.4%– -1.6% 48%
BARU
BARU
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
$21 Vol.
39%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$21 Vol.
48%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$16 Vol.
48%
-0.8%–0.0%
$16 Vol.
47%
0.0%–0.8%
$215 Vol.
48%
0.8%–1.6%
$21 Vol.
39%
1.6%–2.4%
$21 Vol.
34%
2.4%–3.2%
$16 Vol.
47%
3.2%–4.0%
$60 Vol.
50%
4.0%+
$15 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Middle East tensions and associated spikes in crude oil prices represent the dominant factor shaping trader views on Japan's Q2 2026 GDP, as higher energy costs erode corporate margins and household real income through deteriorated terms of trade. Q1 delivered a solid 0.5% QoQ expansion that exceeded consensus, buoyed by resilient private consumption and net exports, yet forecasters now anticipate moderation or outright contraction in Q2 amid these external headwinds. Bank of Japan projections and private surveys point to annualized quarterly growth clustering near 0% to 1%, reflecting ongoing wage gains and domestic demand support offset by inflation pressures and softer business investment. With leading market-implied probabilities tightly grouped between roughly -0.8% and 3.2%, outcomes hinge on incoming monthly indicators for industrial production, retail sales, and energy import costs ahead of the August preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Pasar Dibuka: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$422Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Middle East tensions and associated spikes in crude oil prices represent the dominant factor shaping trader views on Japan's Q2 2026 GDP, as higher energy costs erode corporate margins and household real income through deteriorated terms of trade. Q1 delivered a solid 0.5% QoQ expansion that exceeded consensus, buoyed by resilient private consumption and net exports, yet forecasters now anticipate moderation or outright contraction in Q2 amid these external headwinds. Bank of Japan projections and private surveys point to annualized quarterly growth clustering near 0% to 1%, reflecting ongoing wage gains and domestic demand support offset by inflation pressures and softer business investment. With leading market-implied probabilities tightly grouped between roughly -0.8% and 3.2%, outcomes hinge on incoming monthly indicators for industrial production, retail sales, and energy import costs ahead of the August preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$422Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East tensions and associated spikes in crude oil prices represent the dominant factor shaping trader views on Japan's Q2 2026 GDP, as higher energy costs erode corporate margins and household real income through deteriorated terms of trade. Q1 delivered a solid 0.5% QoQ expansion that exceeded consensus, buoyed by resilient private consumption and net exports, yet forecasters now anticipate moderation or outright contraction in Q2 amid these external headwinds. Bank of Japan projections and private surveys point to annualized quarterly growth clustering near 0% to 1%, reflecting ongoing wage gains and domestic demand support offset by inflation pressures and softer business investment. With leading market-implied probabilities tightly grouped between roughly -0.8% and 3.2%, outcomes hinge on incoming monthly indicators for industrial production, retail sales, and energy import costs ahead of the August preliminary release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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