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icon for US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Ekonomi·Kebijakan Ekonomi

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

icon for US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Ekonomi·Kebijakan Ekonomi

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

2.0–2.5% 25%

2.5–3.0% 22%

1.5–2.0% 17%

3.0–3.5% 16%

Polymarket
BARU

2.0–2.5% 25%

2.5–3.0% 22%

1.5–2.0% 17%

3.0–3.5% 16%

Polymarket
BARU

<1.0%

$576 Vol.

12%

1.0–1.5%

$342 Vol.

10%

1.5–2.0%

$209 Vol.

22%

2.0–2.5%

$526 Vol.

25%

2.5–3.0%

$410 Vol.

22%

3.0–3.5%

$655 Vol.

16%

≥3.5%

$392 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Q2 2026 US GDP growth, with 2.0–2.5% holding a slim 25% implied probability ahead of 1.5–2.0% at 21.5%, reflecting balanced risks after Q1's 2.0% rebound. Atlanta Fed GDPNow remains steady at 3.7% as of May 8, buoyed by robust private investment and personal consumption proxies, yet traders discount upside amid April's soft nonfarm payrolls (+115,000) signaling labor market cooling and hotter-than-expected CPI (3.8% YoY). Sticky inflation dims Fed rate-cut hopes, potentially curbing spending, while upcoming April retail sales, ISM surveys, and Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 will be pivotal swing factors.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$3,111
Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Q2 2026 US GDP growth, with 2.0–2.5% holding a slim 25% implied probability ahead of 1.5–2.0% at 21.5%, reflecting balanced risks after Q1's 2.0% rebound. Atlanta Fed GDPNow remains steady at 3.7% as of May 8, buoyed by robust private investment and personal consumption proxies, yet traders discount upside amid April's soft nonfarm payrolls (+115,000) signaling labor market cooling and hotter-than-expected CPI (3.8% YoY). Sticky inflation dims Fed rate-cut hopes, potentially curbing spending, while upcoming April retail sales, ISM surveys, and Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 will be pivotal swing factors.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$3,111
Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "2.0–2.5%" di 25%, diikuti oleh "1.5–2.0%" di 22%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 25¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 25% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Apr 30, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "US GDP growth in Q2 2026?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" adalah "2.0–2.5%" di 25%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 25% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "1.5–2.0%" di 22%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.