Recent Bank of Japan communications have reinforced expectations that any near-term tightening is more likely to occur at the June 15-16 meeting, leaving the July 30-31 decision tilted toward no change. The April 28 hold at 0.75 percent passed on a 6-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike amid upward revisions to core inflation forecasts driven by Middle East energy risks. Minutes released May 12 highlighted board concerns over wage-price spirals and supply shocks, yet signaled measured pacing that markets now price as a June-first scenario. This dynamic supports the current 58.5 percent probability of no change in July and 40.5 percent for a 25 basis point increase, as traders weigh the limited scope for back-to-back moves absent fresh data confirming sustained inflation above target.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 59%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
BARU
BARU
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
40%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
BARU
BARU
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$447 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$307 Vol.
1%
No change
$20 Vol.
59%
25 bps increase
$77 Vol.
40%
50+ bps increase
$61 Vol.
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications have reinforced expectations that any near-term tightening is more likely to occur at the June 15-16 meeting, leaving the July 30-31 decision tilted toward no change. The April 28 hold at 0.75 percent passed on a 6-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike amid upward revisions to core inflation forecasts driven by Middle East energy risks. Minutes released May 12 highlighted board concerns over wage-price spirals and supply shocks, yet signaled measured pacing that markets now price as a June-first scenario. This dynamic supports the current 58.5 percent probability of no change in July and 40.5 percent for a 25 basis point increase, as traders weigh the limited scope for back-to-back moves absent fresh data confirming sustained inflation above target.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$912Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications have reinforced expectations that any near-term tightening is more likely to occur at the June 15-16 meeting, leaving the July 30-31 decision tilted toward no change. The April 28 hold at 0.75 percent passed on a 6-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike amid upward revisions to core inflation forecasts driven by Middle East energy risks. Minutes released May 12 highlighted board concerns over wage-price spirals and supply shocks, yet signaled measured pacing that markets now price as a June-first scenario. This dynamic supports the current 58.5 percent probability of no change in July and 40.5 percent for a 25 basis point increase, as traders weigh the limited scope for back-to-back moves absent fresh data confirming sustained inflation above target.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$912Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan communications have reinforced expectations that any near-term tightening is more likely to occur at the June 15-16 meeting, leaving the July 30-31 decision tilted toward no change. The April 28 hold at 0.75 percent passed on a 6-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike amid upward revisions to core inflation forecasts driven by Middle East energy risks. Minutes released May 12 highlighted board concerns over wage-price spirals and supply shocks, yet signaled measured pacing that markets now price as a June-first scenario. This dynamic supports the current 58.5 percent probability of no change in July and 40.5 percent for a 25 basis point increase, as traders weigh the limited scope for back-to-back moves absent fresh data confirming sustained inflation above target.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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