The Bank of Japan's September 17-18 decision to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, alongside persistent core inflation near 1.7-1.8% and expectations for a terminal rate of 1.5-1.75% or higher, has anchored trader expectations for elevated long-term yields. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi, including planned consumption tax cuts and higher JGB issuance, have lifted term premiums and prompted upward revisions in end-2026 forecasts to around 3% by houses such as Oxford Economics. The 10-year JGB yield trading near 3%—its highest level since 1996—reflects these dynamics, with market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes above 3.0% as participants price in sustained monetary tightening and fiscal risks ahead of the December budget process.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.5%
2.4-2.6% 7.1%
2.6-2.8% 2.8%
$29,743 Vol.
$29,743 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
18%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.5%
2.4-2.6% 7.1%
2.6-2.8% 2.8%
$29,743 Vol.
$29,743 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
$1,370 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Vol.
18%
3.0%+
$11,574 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.The Bank of Japan's September 17-18 decision to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, alongside persistent core inflation near 1.7-1.8% and expectations for a terminal rate of 1.5-1.75% or higher, has anchored trader expectations for elevated long-term yields. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi, including planned consumption tax cuts and higher JGB issuance, have lifted term premiums and prompted upward revisions in end-2026 forecasts to around 3% by houses such as Oxford Economics. The 10-year JGB yield trading near 3%—its highest level since 1996—reflects these dynamics, with market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes above 3.0% as participants price in sustained monetary tightening and fiscal risks ahead of the December budget process.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,743Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.The Bank of Japan's September 17-18 decision to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, alongside persistent core inflation near 1.7-1.8% and expectations for a terminal rate of 1.5-1.75% or higher, has anchored trader expectations for elevated long-term yields. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi, including planned consumption tax cuts and higher JGB issuance, have lifted term premiums and prompted upward revisions in end-2026 forecasts to around 3% by houses such as Oxford Economics. The 10-year JGB yield trading near 3%—its highest level since 1996—reflects these dynamics, with market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes above 3.0% as participants price in sustained monetary tightening and fiscal risks ahead of the December budget process.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$29,743Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan's September 17-18 decision to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, alongside persistent core inflation near 1.7-1.8% and expectations for a terminal rate of 1.5-1.75% or higher, has anchored trader expectations for elevated long-term yields. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi, including planned consumption tax cuts and higher JGB issuance, have lifted term premiums and prompted upward revisions in end-2026 forecasts to around 3% by houses such as Oxford Economics. The 10-year JGB yield trading near 3%—its highest level since 1996—reflects these dynamics, with market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes above 3.0% as participants price in sustained monetary tightening and fiscal risks ahead of the December budget process.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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