Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting a 3.0% average for 2026 amid Middle East energy price pressures, underpins the 91% market-implied probability that the ECB will not cut its deposit facility rate this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike to 2.25%, the July hold and subsequent data-dependent communications emphasize returning inflation—including core measures revised higher—to the 2% target, supported by resilient labor markets and 0.8% projected GDP growth. Traders price steady or tighter policy through December, consistent with official guidance avoiding any easing commitment. A rapid decline in energy costs or sharper growth contraction could reopen cut discussions at later meetings, though current pricing assigns limited odds to such outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui9% peluang
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% peluang
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting a 3.0% average for 2026 amid Middle East energy price pressures, underpins the 91% market-implied probability that the ECB will not cut its deposit facility rate this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike to 2.25%, the July hold and subsequent data-dependent communications emphasize returning inflation—including core measures revised higher—to the 2% target, supported by resilient labor markets and 0.8% projected GDP growth. Traders price steady or tighter policy through December, consistent with official guidance avoiding any easing commitment. A rapid decline in energy costs or sharper growth contraction could reopen cut discussions at later meetings, though current pricing assigns limited odds to such outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,480Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting a 3.0% average for 2026 amid Middle East energy price pressures, underpins the 91% market-implied probability that the ECB will not cut its deposit facility rate this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike to 2.25%, the July hold and subsequent data-dependent communications emphasize returning inflation—including core measures revised higher—to the 2% target, supported by resilient labor markets and 0.8% projected GDP growth. Traders price steady or tighter policy through December, consistent with official guidance avoiding any easing commitment. A rapid decline in energy costs or sharper growth contraction could reopen cut discussions at later meetings, though current pricing assigns limited odds to such outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,480Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting a 3.0% average for 2026 amid Middle East energy price pressures, underpins the 91% market-implied probability that the ECB will not cut its deposit facility rate this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike to 2.25%, the July hold and subsequent data-dependent communications emphasize returning inflation—including core measures revised higher—to the 2% target, supported by resilient labor markets and 0.8% projected GDP growth. Traders price steady or tighter policy through December, consistent with official guidance avoiding any easing commitment. A rapid decline in energy costs or sharper growth contraction could reopen cut discussions at later meetings, though current pricing assigns limited odds to such outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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