Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp energy price increases and pushed euro area inflation forecasts higher, with the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters now projecting 2.7 percent average headline inflation for 2026. In response, the Governing Council has held its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent since early 2026 while emphasizing upside risks to prices and the need to avoid second-round effects. Professional forecasters and market surveys increasingly anticipate one or two modest hikes this year rather than any easing, aligning with the ECB’s data-dependent approach and its baseline projection of inflation remaining above the 2 percent target through most of 2026. These developments underpin traders’ strong consensus against a rate cut occurring within the year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp energy price increases and pushed euro area inflation forecasts higher, with the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters now projecting 2.7 percent average headline inflation for 2026. In response, the Governing Council has held its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent since early 2026 while emphasizing upside risks to prices and the need to avoid second-round effects. Professional forecasters and market surveys increasingly anticipate one or two modest hikes this year rather than any easing, aligning with the ECB’s data-dependent approach and its baseline projection of inflation remaining above the 2 percent target through most of 2026. These developments underpin traders’ strong consensus against a rate cut occurring within the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$27,913Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp energy price increases and pushed euro area inflation forecasts higher, with the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters now projecting 2.7 percent average headline inflation for 2026. In response, the Governing Council has held its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent since early 2026 while emphasizing upside risks to prices and the need to avoid second-round effects. Professional forecasters and market surveys increasingly anticipate one or two modest hikes this year rather than any easing, aligning with the ECB’s data-dependent approach and its baseline projection of inflation remaining above the 2 percent target through most of 2026. These developments underpin traders’ strong consensus against a rate cut occurring within the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,913Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp energy price increases and pushed euro area inflation forecasts higher, with the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters now projecting 2.7 percent average headline inflation for 2026. In response, the Governing Council has held its deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent since early 2026 while emphasizing upside risks to prices and the need to avoid second-round effects. Professional forecasters and market surveys increasingly anticipate one or two modest hikes this year rather than any easing, aligning with the ECB’s data-dependent approach and its baseline projection of inflation remaining above the 2 percent target through most of 2026. These developments underpin traders’ strong consensus against a rate cut occurring within the year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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