Brazil’s Central Bank faces a November Copom meeting amid clear signs of economic moderation and contained price pressures that have anchored trader expectations for a 25-basis-point Selic reduction. The September 25 bp cut to 13.75% followed five straight easings, with the committee highlighting decelerating activity in cyclical sectors and underlying inflation measures below the tolerance band’s upper limit. Focus survey and Febraban polls now embed another quarter-point move by year-end, supported by lowered 2026 GDP forecasts around 1.8% and stable long-horizon inflation projections near 3.2%. Elevated inflation expectations above the 3% target and post-election fiscal uncertainty remain swing factors, yet current data flows continue to favor measured easing over a pause or reversal.