Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 5–10 points in first-round vote intentions, with Lula at 38–42% and Bolsonaro at 31–36%, while other candidates such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado remain in single digits. This distribution under Brazil’s two-round system drives trader positioning toward a Lula da Silva 5–10% margin as the leading outcome. The official campaign launch on August 16 has highlighted mobilization by both major contenders ahead of the October 4 vote, amid a slight recent narrowing of Lula’s advantage in surveys from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData. Flávio Bolsonaro’s earlier controversies from June have not produced further measurable shifts in current aggregates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 39%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 26.8%
Lula da Silva <5% 21%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%
$323,381 Vol.
$323,381 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
27%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
39%
Lula da Silva <5%
21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
6%
Renan Santos Victory
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
1%
Other
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 39%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 26.8%
Lula da Silva <5% 21%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%
$323,381 Vol.
$323,381 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$12,152 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$26,871 Vol.
27%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$18,163 Vol.
39%
Lula da Silva <5%
$19,690 Vol.
21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$6,355 Vol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$6,104 Vol.
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$10,511 Vol.
6%
Renan Santos Victory
$210,825 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$3,532 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$4,155 Vol.
1%
Other
$5,022 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 5–10 points in first-round vote intentions, with Lula at 38–42% and Bolsonaro at 31–36%, while other candidates such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado remain in single digits. This distribution under Brazil’s two-round system drives trader positioning toward a Lula da Silva 5–10% margin as the leading outcome. The official campaign launch on August 16 has highlighted mobilization by both major contenders ahead of the October 4 vote, amid a slight recent narrowing of Lula’s advantage in surveys from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData. Flávio Bolsonaro’s earlier controversies from June have not produced further measurable shifts in current aggregates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$323,381Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 5–10 points in first-round vote intentions, with Lula at 38–42% and Bolsonaro at 31–36%, while other candidates such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado remain in single digits. This distribution under Brazil’s two-round system drives trader positioning toward a Lula da Silva 5–10% margin as the leading outcome. The official campaign launch on August 16 has highlighted mobilization by both major contenders ahead of the October 4 vote, amid a slight recent narrowing of Lula’s advantage in surveys from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData. Flávio Bolsonaro’s earlier controversies from June have not produced further measurable shifts in current aggregates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$323,381Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly 5–10 points in first-round vote intentions, with Lula at 38–42% and Bolsonaro at 31–36%, while other candidates such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado remain in single digits. This distribution under Brazil’s two-round system drives trader positioning toward a Lula da Silva 5–10% margin as the leading outcome. The official campaign launch on August 16 has highlighted mobilization by both major contenders ahead of the October 4 vote, amid a slight recent narrowing of Lula’s advantage in surveys from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData. Flávio Bolsonaro’s earlier controversies from June have not produced further measurable shifts in current aggregates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Apakah Flávio Bolsonaro akan finis di tempat kedua pada putaran pertama pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?
86%
Ya
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
53%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
80%
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