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Politik·Brasil

Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2

icon for Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2
Politik·Brasil

Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2

Flávio Bolsonaro 65%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%

Renan Santos 5.1%

Romeu Zema 3.1%

Polymarket

$3,500,318 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 65%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%

Renan Santos 5.1%

Romeu Zema 3.1%

Polymarket

$3,500,318 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$55,237 Vol.

65%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$66,377 Vol.

16%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$993,864 Vol.

5%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$253,461 Vol.

3%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$651,184 Vol.

3%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$55,873 Vol.

2%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$64,749 Vol.

2%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$123,229 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$286,770 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$111,010 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$29,795 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$642,602 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$77,327 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$48,371 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$40,470 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent nationwide polls for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election consistently position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first place, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as runner-up, fueling trader consensus at 65% implied probability for Bolsonaro securing second and advancing to a runoff. Quaest (May 8-11) shows Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro at 33%, while Futura (May 4-8) has Lula at 38% versus Bolsonaro's 37%, margins of 4-7 points amid a fragmented opposition field where Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll under 6%. Lula's 16% for second reflects low expectations of an upset, despite tight runoff simulations; undecided voters and scandals like leaked audios tied to Bolsonaro add uncertainty ahead of campaign intensification.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,500,318
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent nationwide polls for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election consistently position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first place, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as runner-up, fueling trader consensus at 65% implied probability for Bolsonaro securing second and advancing to a runoff. Quaest (May 8-11) shows Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro at 33%, while Futura (May 4-8) has Lula at 38% versus Bolsonaro's 37%, margins of 4-7 points amid a fragmented opposition field where Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll under 6%. Lula's 16% for second reflects low expectations of an upset, despite tight runoff simulations; undecided voters and scandals like leaked audios tied to Bolsonaro add uncertainty ahead of campaign intensification.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,500,318
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 15 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 65%, diikuti oleh "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 16%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 65¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 65% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" telah menghasilkan $3.5 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 11, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2," jelajahi 15 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 65%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 65% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 16%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.