Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, dominates trader pricing for the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest because multiple 2026 polls show him leading potential opponents by double digits in first-round scenarios and winning all tested runoffs. Recent Datafolha, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas surveys place him at 44–49% against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the 31–36% range, with no other declared or speculated candidate reaching double digits. His decision to seek re-election rather than the presidency has clarified the field, while approval ratings near 64% reinforce incumbency advantages in a state where governors historically secure second terms. Kim Kataguiri registers modest support but trails far behind, and fringe names such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain negligible in surveys. No major scandals or shifts have altered the standing since early-year polling.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTarcísio de Freitas 90%
Fernando Haddad 7.2%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
Márcio França <1%
$171,730 Vol.
$171,730 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
90%
Fernando Haddad
7%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 90%
Fernando Haddad 7.2%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
Márcio França <1%
$171,730 Vol.
$171,730 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$43,279 Vol.
90%
Fernando Haddad
$34,761 Vol.
7%
Kim Kataguiri
$70,144 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$8,864 Vol.
<1%
Erika Hilton
$14,682 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, dominates trader pricing for the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest because multiple 2026 polls show him leading potential opponents by double digits in first-round scenarios and winning all tested runoffs. Recent Datafolha, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas surveys place him at 44–49% against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the 31–36% range, with no other declared or speculated candidate reaching double digits. His decision to seek re-election rather than the presidency has clarified the field, while approval ratings near 64% reinforce incumbency advantages in a state where governors historically secure second terms. Kim Kataguiri registers modest support but trails far behind, and fringe names such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain negligible in surveys. No major scandals or shifts have altered the standing since early-year polling.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$171,730Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, dominates trader pricing for the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest because multiple 2026 polls show him leading potential opponents by double digits in first-round scenarios and winning all tested runoffs. Recent Datafolha, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas surveys place him at 44–49% against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the 31–36% range, with no other declared or speculated candidate reaching double digits. His decision to seek re-election rather than the presidency has clarified the field, while approval ratings near 64% reinforce incumbency advantages in a state where governors historically secure second terms. Kim Kataguiri registers modest support but trails far behind, and fringe names such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain negligible in surveys. No major scandals or shifts have altered the standing since early-year polling.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$171,730Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, dominates trader pricing for the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial contest because multiple 2026 polls show him leading potential opponents by double digits in first-round scenarios and winning all tested runoffs. Recent Datafolha, Vox Brasil, and Paraná Pesquisas surveys place him at 44–49% against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the 31–36% range, with no other declared or speculated candidate reaching double digits. His decision to seek re-election rather than the presidency has clarified the field, while approval ratings near 64% reinforce incumbency advantages in a state where governors historically secure second terms. Kim Kataguiri registers modest support but trails far behind, and fringe names such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain negligible in surveys. No major scandals or shifts have altered the standing since early-year polling.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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