Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling, including surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Vox Brasil showing him at 41-53% against Fernando Haddad’s 26-37% range. As incumbent with strong name recognition and backing from the Republicanos party, Freitas benefits from a fragmented opposition field, recent candidate withdrawals by figures like Kim Kataguiri, and his early August 2026 formal nomination for re-election. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing incorporates these factors along with the October 4, 2026, first-round dynamics in Brazil’s largest state. A late scandal, health development, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still alter trajectories, though no such shifts have materialized in the past month.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 3.6%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$278,971 Vol.
$278,971 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 3.6%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$278,971 Vol.
$278,971 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$122,990 Vol.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$46,833 Vol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling, including surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Vox Brasil showing him at 41-53% against Fernando Haddad’s 26-37% range. As incumbent with strong name recognition and backing from the Republicanos party, Freitas benefits from a fragmented opposition field, recent candidate withdrawals by figures like Kim Kataguiri, and his early August 2026 formal nomination for re-election. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing incorporates these factors along with the October 4, 2026, first-round dynamics in Brazil’s largest state. A late scandal, health development, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still alter trajectories, though no such shifts have materialized in the past month.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$278,971Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling, including surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Vox Brasil showing him at 41-53% against Fernando Haddad’s 26-37% range. As incumbent with strong name recognition and backing from the Republicanos party, Freitas benefits from a fragmented opposition field, recent candidate withdrawals by figures like Kim Kataguiri, and his early August 2026 formal nomination for re-election. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing incorporates these factors along with the October 4, 2026, first-round dynamics in Brazil’s largest state. A late scandal, health development, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still alter trajectories, though no such shifts have materialized in the past month.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$278,971Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling, including surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Vox Brasil showing him at 41-53% against Fernando Haddad’s 26-37% range. As incumbent with strong name recognition and backing from the Republicanos party, Freitas benefits from a fragmented opposition field, recent candidate withdrawals by figures like Kim Kataguiri, and his early August 2026 formal nomination for re-election. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing incorporates these factors along with the October 4, 2026, first-round dynamics in Brazil’s largest state. A late scandal, health development, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still alter trajectories, though no such shifts have materialized in the past month.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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