Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the dominant contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, with recent polls placing the incumbent Workers’ Party president at 38–46% and the Liberal Party senator at 30–37%, well ahead of Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. The electoral system advances only the top two if no candidate secures an outright majority, and the gap to third place has held steady in surveys through mid-September. Flávio’s candidacy carries the endorsement of his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula seeks a fourth term alongside Geraldo Alckmin. Runoff simulations show the pair statistically tied or within a few points, underscoring polarization, though first-round dynamics appear stable. Scheduled debates and the start of free broadcast time in late September could still shift lower-tier support, but current polling and campaign structure point to these two proceeding.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$623,942 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
96%
Renan Santos
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$623,942 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$280,143 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$107,403 Vol.
96%
Renan Santos
$26,151 Vol.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,775 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$833 Vol.
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,434 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$17,749 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$86,584 Vol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,870 Vol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the dominant contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, with recent polls placing the incumbent Workers’ Party president at 38–46% and the Liberal Party senator at 30–37%, well ahead of Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. The electoral system advances only the top two if no candidate secures an outright majority, and the gap to third place has held steady in surveys through mid-September. Flávio’s candidacy carries the endorsement of his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula seeks a fourth term alongside Geraldo Alckmin. Runoff simulations show the pair statistically tied or within a few points, underscoring polarization, though first-round dynamics appear stable. Scheduled debates and the start of free broadcast time in late September could still shift lower-tier support, but current polling and campaign structure point to these two proceeding.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
Volume
$623,942Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the dominant contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, with recent polls placing the incumbent Workers’ Party president at 38–46% and the Liberal Party senator at 30–37%, well ahead of Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. The electoral system advances only the top two if no candidate secures an outright majority, and the gap to third place has held steady in surveys through mid-September. Flávio’s candidacy carries the endorsement of his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula seeks a fourth term alongside Geraldo Alckmin. Runoff simulations show the pair statistically tied or within a few points, underscoring polarization, though first-round dynamics appear stable. Scheduled debates and the start of free broadcast time in late September could still shift lower-tier support, but current polling and campaign structure point to these two proceeding.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$623,942Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the dominant contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, with recent polls placing the incumbent Workers’ Party president at 38–46% and the Liberal Party senator at 30–37%, well ahead of Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. The electoral system advances only the top two if no candidate secures an outright majority, and the gap to third place has held steady in surveys through mid-September. Flávio’s candidacy carries the endorsement of his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula seeks a fourth term alongside Geraldo Alckmin. Runoff simulations show the pair statistically tied or within a few points, underscoring polarization, though first-round dynamics appear stable. Scheduled debates and the start of free broadcast time in late September could still shift lower-tier support, but current polling and campaign structure point to these two proceeding.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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