Skip to main content
icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

$406,462 Vol.

Oct 4, 2026
Polymarket

$406,462 Vol.

Polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$188,433 Vol.

95%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$37,148 Vol.

66%

Renan Santos

$64 Vol.

19%

Romeu Zema

$136 Vol.

19%

Ronaldo Caiado

$90 Vol.

16%

Fernando Haddad

$59,526 Vol.

6%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$28,196 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$12,829 Vol.

2%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$80,040 Vol.

2%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the leading contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, with recent polling showing them neck-and-neck in runoff matchups amid rising undecided voters. A May-June scandal involving audios of Flávio soliciting funds from a banker under fraud investigation has eroded his support and reopened questions about who will consolidate the right-wing vote. Other registered figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register low single digits but could influence second-place positioning if opposition fragmentation persists. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility continues to shape the field. Official candidacies are due in July, with the runoff—if required—set for October 25; voter concerns over crime, corruption, and fiscal policy will likely determine which two candidates clear the threshold.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$406,462
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the leading contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, with recent polling showing them neck-and-neck in runoff matchups amid rising undecided voters. A May-June scandal involving audios of Flávio soliciting funds from a banker under fraud investigation has eroded his support and reopened questions about who will consolidate the right-wing vote. Other registered figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register low single digits but could influence second-place positioning if opposition fragmentation persists. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility continues to shape the field. Official candidacies are due in July, with the runoff—if required—set for October 25; voter concerns over crime, corruption, and fiscal policy will likely determine which two candidates clear the threshold.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$406,462
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 95%, diikuti oleh "Flavio Bolsonaro" di 66%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 95¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 95% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" telah menghasilkan $406.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Sep 18, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 95%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 95% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Flavio Bolsonaro" di 66%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.