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icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Dunia·Pemilihan Umum Global

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Dunia·Pemilihan Umum Global

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

$472,569 Vol.

Oct 4, 2026
Polymarket

$472,569 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$217,431 Vol.

96%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$46,525 Vol.

90%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$11,333 Vol.

7%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$530 Vol.

2%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$34,442 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$648 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Frietas

Tarcisio de Frietas

$81,652 Vol.

1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$64,718 Vol.

1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$15,290 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling at 38–42 percent ahead of the October 4, 2026 vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trails at 28–33 percent as the main right-wing contender following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility. Other declared candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, remain in single digits. With no candidate approaching the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff on October 25, recent surveys and the fragmented opposition field have kept trader focus on a likely Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro matchup. Minor recent developments, such as resolved family tensions within the Bolsonaro camp, have not materially shifted first-round consolidation patterns.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$472,569
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling at 38–42 percent ahead of the October 4, 2026 vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trails at 28–33 percent as the main right-wing contender following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility. Other declared candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, remain in single digits. With no candidate approaching the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff on October 25, recent surveys and the fragmented opposition field have kept trader focus on a likely Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro matchup. Minor recent developments, such as resolved family tensions within the Bolsonaro camp, have not materially shifted first-round consolidation patterns.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$472,569
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Terkait

icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

12%
icon for Apakah Flávio Bolsonaro akan finis di tempat kedua pada putaran pertama pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?

Apakah Flávio Bolsonaro akan finis di tempat kedua pada putaran pertama pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?

86%
Ya
icon for Apakah Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?

Apakah Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?

67%
Ya

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 96%, diikuti oleh "Flavio Bolsonaro" di 90%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 96¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 96% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" telah menghasilkan $472.6K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Sep 18, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 96%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 96% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Flavio Bolsonaro" di 90%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.