Marine Le Pen leads trader consensus at 40.8% due to her consistent first-round polling advantage of 31-35% for the Rassemblement National, reinforced by her early October announcement of €140 billion in spending cuts through 2032 to address France’s deficit and debt concerns. Édouard Philippe follows at 22.5% as the leading center-right figure, though competition with Gabriel Attal fragments the broader centrist space and recent polls show him trailing Le Pen by wide margins. Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12.5% and David Lisnard at 12.8% reflect left-wing and conservative support bases amid ongoing party primaries and polarization. The April 2027 first round remains over six months away, leaving room for shifts from economic data, coalition negotiations, or legal developments around candidates.