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French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Pemilihan Umum·Pemilihan Umum Prancis

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

BARU
Apr 23, 2027
Polymarket

$9,815 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$87 Vol.

40%

Jordan Bardella

$890 Vol.

68%

Michel Barnier

$141 Vol.

11%

Valérie Pécresse

$156 Vol.

10%

Gabriel Attal

$549 Vol.

93%

Élisabeth Borne

$81 Vol.

31%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$104 Vol.

28%

Jean Castex

$64 Vol.

20%

Gérald Darmanin

$144 Vol.

11%

Sébastien Lecornu

$75 Vol.

42%

François Bayrou

$463 Vol.

10%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$41 Vol.

51%

Carole Delga

$148 Vol.

17%

Olivier Faure

$50 Vol.

48%

François Hollande

$132 Vol.

51%

Raphaël Glucksmann

$81 Vol.

50%

Manuel Bompard

$63 Vol.

16%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$6,383 Vol.

99%

Mathilde Panot

$84 Vol.

9%

Dominique de Villepin

$14 Vol.

54%

Marine Le Pen

$67 Vol.

54%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.With Emmanuel Macron term-limited, multiple political figures have begun declaring candidacies for the April 2027 French presidential election throughout 2026. Jean-Luc Mélenchon confirmed his fourth bid on May 3, citing opposition to foreign policy and far-right advances, while Édouard Philippe has signaled his center-right intentions following his mayoral re-election. The Republicans selected Bruno Retailleau as their nominee in April, and Jordan Bardella remains the likely standard-bearer for the National Rally if Marine Le Pen faces disqualification. On the left, a unitary primary scheduled for October 11, 2026, seeks to consolidate candidates from the Socialists, Greens, and others amid ongoing divisions. These early moves reflect party positioning and polling trends ahead of the first-round vote.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$9,815
Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 23, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.With Emmanuel Macron term-limited, multiple political figures have begun declaring candidacies for the April 2027 French presidential election throughout 2026. Jean-Luc Mélenchon confirmed his fourth bid on May 3, citing opposition to foreign policy and far-right advances, while Édouard Philippe has signaled his center-right intentions following his mayoral re-election. The Republicans selected Bruno Retailleau as their nominee in April, and Jordan Bardella remains the likely standard-bearer for the National Rally if Marine Le Pen faces disqualification. On the left, a unitary primary scheduled for October 11, 2026, seeks to consolidate candidates from the Socialists, Greens, and others amid ongoing divisions. These early moves reflect party positioning and polling trends ahead of the first-round vote.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$9,815
Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 23, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 21 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" di 99%, diikuti oleh "Gabriel Attal" di 93%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 99¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 99% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Apr 22, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?," jelajahi 21 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" adalah "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" di 99%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 99% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Gabriel Attal" di 93%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.