Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s 13 September general election show the centre-left opposition bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a narrow but consistent lead of roughly 50–53% against the governing right-wing bloc’s 45–47%. This positioning underpins the strong market consensus around Magdalena Andersson, who leads the largest opposition party and would form the next government if her bloc secures a parliamentary majority. Ulf Kristersson’s current administration, backed by the Sweden Democrats and smaller coalition partners, trails in voter support, limiting his re-election prospects despite incremental narrowing of the gap in recent surveys. Minor-party leaders such as Ebba Busch and Jimmie Åkesson register negligible probabilities, reflecting structural barriers to their elevation even within a hypothetical right-wing victory. The election outcome remains the decisive near-term catalyst.