United Russia is expected to secure first place in the September 2026 State Duma election, leaving the contest for second among the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and New People. Recent polling from VCIOM and FOM shows these parties clustered between roughly 6-15% support, with New People occasionally leading and LDPR gaining on leadership changes, yet KPRF retains an edge in trader assessments due to its established regional organizations, historical second-place finishes, and broader voter base. Kremlin-aligned strategies appear focused on managing systemic opposition outcomes, while recent regional voting patterns and party infrastructure favor KPRF holding the position over newer or smaller contenders. The implied probabilities align with this established dynamic ahead of the three-day vote.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 84%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7.3%
New People (NL) 5.8%
United Russia (ER) <1%
$299,096 Vol.
$299,096 Vol.

United Russia (ER)
<1%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
84%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
7%

New People (NL)
6%

Rodina
<1%

Civic Platform (GP)
<1%

Yabloko
<1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 84%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7.3%
New People (NL) 5.8%
United Russia (ER) <1%
$299,096 Vol.
$299,096 Vol.

United Russia (ER)
<1%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
84%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
7%

New People (NL)
6%

Rodina
<1%

Civic Platform (GP)
<1%

Yabloko
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 21, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...United Russia is expected to secure first place in the September 2026 State Duma election, leaving the contest for second among the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and New People. Recent polling from VCIOM and FOM shows these parties clustered between roughly 6-15% support, with New People occasionally leading and LDPR gaining on leadership changes, yet KPRF retains an edge in trader assessments due to its established regional organizations, historical second-place finishes, and broader voter base. Kremlin-aligned strategies appear focused on managing systemic opposition outcomes, while recent regional voting patterns and party infrastructure favor KPRF holding the position over newer or smaller contenders. The implied probabilities align with this established dynamic ahead of the three-day vote.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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