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Pemilihan Umum·Etiopia

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Pemilihan Umum·Etiopia

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Abiy Ahmed 96.8%

Shimelis Abdisa 1.4%

Gedion Timothewos <1%

Alesa Mengesha <1%

Polymarket

$286,013,117 Vol.

Abiy Ahmed 96.8%

Shimelis Abdisa 1.4%

Gedion Timothewos <1%

Alesa Mengesha <1%

Polymarket

$286,013,117 Vol.

icon for Abiy Ahmed

Abiy Ahmed

$145,849 Vol.

97%

icon for Shimelis Abdisa

Shimelis Abdisa

$41,579,340 Vol.

1%

icon for Gedion Timothewos

Gedion Timothewos

$55,934,677 Vol.

1%

icon for Alesa Mengesha

Alesa Mengesha

$13,578,365 Vol.

1%

icon for Belete Molla

Belete Molla

$32,288,756 Vol.

<1%

icon for Berhanu Nega

Berhanu Nega

$29,703,937 Vol.

<1%

icon for Demeke Mekonnen

Demeke Mekonnen

$29,327,208 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adanech Abiebie

Adanech Abiebie

$83,454,985 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Abiy Ahmed’s commanding position in the market stems from his Prosperity Party’s landslide victory in Ethiopia’s June 2026 parliamentary elections, where it captured 438 of 501 contested seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives despite disruptions in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia. Under Ethiopia’s parliamentary system, the newly elected legislature is expected to reappoint him as prime minister when it convenes in October. Ongoing insurgencies and security challenges in several regions have not altered the ruling party’s dominance or the fragmented state of opposition groups. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include renewed large-scale conflict in Tigray, a significant deterioration in internal security, or an unexpected leadership transition within the Prosperity Party before the next parliamentary vote.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$286,013,117
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 1, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Abiy Ahmed’s commanding position in the market stems from his Prosperity Party’s landslide victory in Ethiopia’s June 2026 parliamentary elections, where it captured 438 of 501 contested seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives despite disruptions in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia. Under Ethiopia’s parliamentary system, the newly elected legislature is expected to reappoint him as prime minister when it convenes in October. Ongoing insurgencies and security challenges in several regions have not altered the ruling party’s dominance or the fragmented state of opposition groups. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include renewed large-scale conflict in Tigray, a significant deterioration in internal security, or an unexpected leadership transition within the Prosperity Party before the next parliamentary vote.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$286,013,117
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 1, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 8 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Abiy Ahmed" di 97%, diikuti oleh "Shimelis Abdisa" di 1%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 97¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 97% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" telah menghasilkan $286 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 27, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?," jelajahi 8 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" adalah "Abiy Ahmed" di 97%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 97% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Shimelis Abdisa" di 1%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.