The tight distribution of probabilities around a 35-50% Labour vote share in the October 8 by-election stems primarily from the competitive challenge mounted by Green Party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, following Keir Starmer’s September resignation. Recent Camden local election results, showing Labour on roughly 38-39% and Greens near 29%, combined with national shifts after Andy Burnham’s leadership transition, have narrowed Labour’s expected margin in this Remain-heavy London seat. Low by-election turnout and vote fragmentation among 15 candidates, including Reform UK and Liberal Democrats, add uncertainty. Trader consensus reflects these local dynamics and limited national polling, with separation likely hinging on final-week campaigning intensity and any late swings in progressive voter preferences.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui40-45% 28%
35-40% 23%
45-50% 19%
50%+ 15%
BARU
BARU
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
11%
30-35%
7%
35-40%
23%
40-45%
28%
45-50%
19%
50%+
15%
40-45% 28%
35-40% 23%
45-50% 19%
50%+ 15%
BARU
BARU
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
$77 Vol.
11%
30-35%
$76 Vol.
7%
35-40%
$90 Vol.
23%
40-45%
$252 Vol.
28%
45-50%
$116 Vol.
19%
50%+
$208 Vol.
15%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The tight distribution of probabilities around a 35-50% Labour vote share in the October 8 by-election stems primarily from the competitive challenge mounted by Green Party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, following Keir Starmer’s September resignation. Recent Camden local election results, showing Labour on roughly 38-39% and Greens near 29%, combined with national shifts after Andy Burnham’s leadership transition, have narrowed Labour’s expected margin in this Remain-heavy London seat. Low by-election turnout and vote fragmentation among 15 candidates, including Reform UK and Liberal Democrats, add uncertainty. Trader consensus reflects these local dynamics and limited national polling, with separation likely hinging on final-week campaigning intensity and any late swings in progressive voter preferences.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$819Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The tight distribution of probabilities around a 35-50% Labour vote share in the October 8 by-election stems primarily from the competitive challenge mounted by Green Party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, following Keir Starmer’s September resignation. Recent Camden local election results, showing Labour on roughly 38-39% and Greens near 29%, combined with national shifts after Andy Burnham’s leadership transition, have narrowed Labour’s expected margin in this Remain-heavy London seat. Low by-election turnout and vote fragmentation among 15 candidates, including Reform UK and Liberal Democrats, add uncertainty. Trader consensus reflects these local dynamics and limited national polling, with separation likely hinging on final-week campaigning intensity and any late swings in progressive voter preferences.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$819Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight distribution of probabilities around a 35-50% Labour vote share in the October 8 by-election stems primarily from the competitive challenge mounted by Green Party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, following Keir Starmer’s September resignation. Recent Camden local election results, showing Labour on roughly 38-39% and Greens near 29%, combined with national shifts after Andy Burnham’s leadership transition, have narrowed Labour’s expected margin in this Remain-heavy London seat. Low by-election turnout and vote fragmentation among 15 candidates, including Reform UK and Liberal Democrats, add uncertainty. Trader consensus reflects these local dynamics and limited national polling, with separation likely hinging on final-week campaigning intensity and any late swings in progressive voter preferences.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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