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icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?
Politik·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?
Politik·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?

<20% 26%

20-25% 21%

25-30% 18%

30-35% 17%

Polymarket
BARU

<20% 26%

20-25% 21%

25-30% 18%

30-35% 17%

Polymarket
BARU
icon for <20%

<20%

$28 Vol.

26%

icon for 20-25%

20-25%

$39 Vol.

21%

icon for 25-30%

25-30%

$39 Vol.

18%

icon for 30-35%

30-35%

$58 Vol.

17%

icon for 35-40%

35-40%

$19 Vol.

15%

icon for 40%+

40%+

$39 Vol.

12%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The recent selection of Green Party leader Zack Polanski as candidate, combined with strong local council gains in Camden and endorsement from former independent challenger Andrew Feinstein, has lifted expectations for the party's performance in the October 8 by-election beyond its 10.4% share in 2024. Traders' tight distribution across vote-share brackets reflects uncertainty over how far this momentum will carry in a constituency long held by Labour, where issues such as housing costs, rent controls and climate policy resonate but traditional party loyalty and a short campaign period remain significant constraints. Upcoming doorstep activity and any late shifts in turnout among progressive voters could narrow or widen the most probable outcome ranges before polling day.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$222
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The recent selection of Green Party leader Zack Polanski as candidate, combined with strong local council gains in Camden and endorsement from former independent challenger Andrew Feinstein, has lifted expectations for the party's performance in the October 8 by-election beyond its 10.4% share in 2024. Traders' tight distribution across vote-share brackets reflects uncertainty over how far this momentum will carry in a constituency long held by Labour, where issues such as housing costs, rent controls and climate policy resonate but traditional party loyalty and a short campaign period remain significant constraints. Upcoming doorstep activity and any late shifts in turnout among progressive voters could narrow or widen the most probable outcome ranges before polling day.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$222
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Terkait

icon for Will the Labour Party candidate win 35-40% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Will the Labour Party candidate win 35-40% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

25%
icon for Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?

Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?

24%
icon for Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

77%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 6 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "<20%" di 26%, diikuti oleh "20-25%" di 21%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 26¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 26% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 14, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?," jelajahi 6 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?" adalah "<20%" di 26%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 26% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "20-25%" di 21%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.