The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 52.5% implied probability to win the Los Angeles mayoral election following a new Emerson College poll showing her at 30% among likely voters, ahead of Spencer Pratt's 22% and Nithya Raman's 19% with 16% undecided. Pratt's surge reflects strong debate performances last week, where he criticized Bass on homelessness, crime, and Palisades wildfires that destroyed his home, gaining traction among frustrated voters and endorsements from figures like Adam Carolla. Bass faced backlash for skipping a key forum, while Raman trails as a progressive councilmember. With the June 2 primary advancing top-two to a November runoff, undecideds and turnout in battleground areas like Pacific Palisades could tip advancement odds.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 52.5% implied probability to win the Los Angeles mayoral election following a new Emerson College poll showing her at 30% among likely voters, ahead of Spencer Pratt's 22% and Nithya Raman's 19% with 16% undecided. Pratt's surge reflects strong debate performances last week, where he criticized Bass on homelessness, crime, and Palisades wildfires that destroyed his home, gaining traction among frustrated voters and endorsements from figures like Adam Carolla. Bass faced backlash for skipping a key forum, while Raman trails as a progressive councilmember. With the June 2 primary advancing top-two to a November runoff, undecideds and turnout in battleground areas like Pacific Palisades could tip advancement odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 11 2026
Final market low at 13% as incumbent Bass maintains lead and no major endorsements or breakthroughs for Raman emerge
Nithya Raman drops to 13%8%
The lack of significant late-stage momentum and Bass’s entrenched position solidified Raman’s diminished chances.
May 10 2026
“Endorsement: Adam Miller for mayor of Los Angeles” – Daily News and Pasadena Star News publish local newspaper endorsements;
the endorsements are modest and come after the
May 6 2026
“Mayoral Candidate Adam Miller Unveils ‘7×7 Policy Plan’ to Improve LA” – MyNewsLA reports his 7×7 plan, but the rollout receives limited media attention and does not shift voter
“Mayoral Candidate Adam Miller Unveils ‘7×7 Policy Plan’ to Improve LA” – MyNewsLA reports his 7×7 plan, but the rollout receives limited media attention and does not shift voter sentiment, so the
May 5 2026
Further decline as political analysts highlight challenges for Raman to consolidate liberal base and gain endorsements late in the race
Nithya Raman plunges to 18%37%
Late entry disadvantages and intra-progressive divisions dampened market confidence.
May 4 2026
“Adam Miller, Los Angeles mayor candidate, 2026 primary election questionnaire” – Daily News publishes a routine questionnaire with no substantive policy announcements,
“Adam Miller, Los Angeles mayor candidate, 2026 primary election questionnaire” – Daily News publishes a routine questionnaire with no substantive policy announcements, reinforcing the perception of a low‑impact campaign and keeping the
May 1 2026
Controversy arises as Rae Huang accepts campaign donation from a streamer with a history of anti-Jewish remarks
Rae Huang dips to 1%1%
News of Huang accepting a maximum donation from a controversial Twitch streamer linked to anti-Semitic comments sparked negative publicity, contributing to a further decline in market support to 1%.
Apr 30 2026
Polls show Raman gaining ground as a progressive alternative amid dissatisfaction with Bass, peaking at 60% in market
Nithya Raman jumps to 60%7%
Growing public discontent with incumbent and Raman’s energized campaign pushed her market.
Apr 30 2026
“Adam Miller wants to fix a ‘broken’ L.A.” – Beverly Press & Park La Brea News highlights Miller’s modest campaign profile and his focus on the over‑budget LAX People Mover,
Adam Miller rises to 1%1%
“Adam Miller wants to fix a ‘broken’ L.A.” – Beverly Press & Park La Brea News highlights Miller’s modest campaign profile and his focus on the over‑budget LAX People Mover, offering no new momentum and leaving his market
Apr 21 2026
Raman releases campaign video emphasizing Hollywood industry revival and criticizes Bass’s handling of film liaison appointment
Nithya Raman jumps to 53%7%
This targeted messaging on economic and cultural issues resonated with voters concerned about Los Angeles’s entertainment sector.
Apr 20 2026
Rae Huang releases detailed plan to remove LAPD Chief and restructure police funding
Rae Huang rises to 5%2%
Huang's public proposal to overhaul the LAPD, including removing Chief Jim McDonnell and redirecting liability payouts, attracted media coverage and a slight market uptick, highlighting her focus on public safety reform.
Apr 2 2026
Karen Bass faces intensified criticism over homelessness, street conditions, and wildfire fallout as the primary election approaches, contributing to a low point in market
Karen Bass plunges to 23%19%
Karen Bass faces intensified criticism over homelessness, street conditions, and wildfire fallout as the primary election approaches, contributing to a low point in market confidence
Mar 31 2026
Raman’s campaign gains momentum with grassroots mobilization and endorsements highlighting her focus on housing and homelessness
Nithya Raman jumps to 47%12%
Her active volunteer-driven petition efforts and policy focus increased optimism about her viability.
Feb 20 2026
Rae Huang peaks at 9% market
Rae Huang jumps to 9%7%
Following campaign efforts and media attention, including outlining bold police reform plans, Huang's market.
Feb 12 2026
Raman publicly shifts stance on LAPD funding, moving from previous "defund the police" position to supporting increased police presence
Nithya Raman rises to 38%4%
This position change aligned her more closely with mainstream voters concerned about public safety, briefly boosting her market support.
Feb 7 2026
Deadline for mayoral candidate filing passes with Caruso absent;
Rick Caruso dips to 0%2%
other challengers enter race, confirming his non-candidacy and market
Feb 7 2026
Nithya Raman announces surprise bid for Los Angeles mayor hours before filing deadline, challenging incumbent Karen Bass despite recent endorsement of Bass
Nithya Raman plunges to 31%18%
This unexpected entry reshaped the race dynamics and introduced uncertainty, causing an initial sharp drop in her market.
Feb 5 2026
Poll shows Rae Huang with approximately 3% support in a crowded mayoral field
Rae Huang plunges to 8%42%
Early polling from UCLA Luskin indicated Huang's support at about 3%, signaling limited traction and causing a sharp market.
Feb 3 2026
Los Angeles Times reports Mayor Karen Bass allegedly altered wildfire after-action report;
Rick Caruso rises to 3%1%
Caruso expresses outrage and briefly reconsiders mayoral run, causing minor market uptick
Jan 7 2026
Pratt publicly criticizes Governor Gavin Newsom and city officials over wildfire mismanagement, including a lawsuit against the city and L.A.
Spencer Pratt drops to 17%6%
Department of Water and Power, raising his profile as an outsider candidate
Jan 7 2026
Spencer Pratt announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor at the “They Let Us Burn” rally in Pacific Palisades, motivated by wildfire recovery failures and government accountability
Spencer Pratt jumps to 23%5%
Spencer Pratt announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor at the “They Let Us Burn” rally in Pacific Palisades, motivated by wildfire recovery failures and government accountability issues; this launch marked his entry into the race and initial market interest
Dec 13 2025
The Los Angeles City Ethics Commission releases the full list of 14 mayoral candidates, highlighting Alnajjar’s engineering background and policy focus, which briefly boosts his
Asaad Alnajjar jumps to 17%5%
The Los Angeles City Ethics Commission releases the full list of 14 mayoral candidates, highlighting Alnajjar’s engineering background and policy focus, which briefly boosts his perceived viability
Nov 15 2025
Rae Huang announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor, emphasizing housing for all, free transit, and economic justice
Huang formally entered the race as a progressive challenger to incumbent Karen Bass, introducing her platform focused on housing affordability and social justice, initially generating market interest at 50%.
Oct 17 2025
Arrest of a suspect charged with sparking the January 1 fire that led to the 2025 Palisades wildfire, intensifying scrutiny on city fire management and Bass’s leadership during
Karen Bass drops to 62%13%
Arrest of a suspect charged with sparking the January 1 fire that led to the 2025 Palisades wildfire, intensifying scrutiny on city fire management and Bass’s leadership during the crisis
Oct 1 2025
Karen Bass receives Trailblazer Award at Verdical Group’s Net Zero Conference for leadership on climate action and announces a new LADWP water conservation program for
Karen Bass drops to 63%8%
Karen Bass receives Trailblazer Award at Verdical Group’s Net Zero Conference for leadership on climate action and announces a new LADWP water conservation program for disadvantaged communities
Jan 7 2025
Rick Caruso deploys private firefighters and water trucks to protect Palisades Village during the Southern California wildfires, highlighting his active role in local crisis
Rick Caruso plunges to 13%23%
Rick Caruso deploys private firefighters and water trucks to protect Palisades Village during the Southern California wildfires, highlighting his active role in local crisis response and increasing his public profile
Oct 31 2024
Karen Bass participates in star-studded event honoring Rev.
Karen Bass surges to 77%17%
Al Sharpton’s 70th birthday in Los Angeles, highlighting her prominence in local political and civil rights circles
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 52.5% implied probability to win the Los Angeles mayoral election following a new Emerson College poll showing her at 30% among likely voters, ahead of Spencer Pratt's 22% and Nithya Raman's 19% with 16% undecided. Pratt's surge reflects strong debate performances last week, where he criticized Bass on homelessness, crime, and Palisades wildfires that destroyed his home, gaining traction among frustrated voters and endorsements from figures like Adam Carolla. Bass faced backlash for skipping a key forum, while Raman trails as a progressive councilmember. With the June 2 primary advancing top-two to a November runoff, undecideds and turnout in battleground areas like Pacific Palisades could tip advancement odds.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 52.5% implied probability to win the Los Angeles mayoral election following a new Emerson College poll showing her at 30% among likely voters, ahead of Spencer Pratt's 22% and Nithya Raman's 19% with 16% undecided. Pratt's surge reflects strong debate performances last week, where he criticized Bass on homelessness, crime, and Palisades wildfires that destroyed his home, gaining traction among frustrated voters and endorsements from figures like Adam Carolla. Bass faced backlash for skipping a key forum, while Raman trails as a progressive councilmember. With the June 2 primary advancing top-two to a November runoff, undecideds and turnout in battleground areas like Pacific Palisades could tip advancement odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 11 2026
Final market low at 13% as incumbent Bass maintains lead and no major endorsements or breakthroughs for Raman emerge
Nithya Raman drops to 13%8%
The lack of significant late-stage momentum and Bass’s entrenched position solidified Raman’s diminished chances.
May 10 2026
“Endorsement: Adam Miller for mayor of Los Angeles” – Daily News and Pasadena Star News publish local newspaper endorsements;
the endorsements are modest and come after the
May 6 2026
“Mayoral Candidate Adam Miller Unveils ‘7×7 Policy Plan’ to Improve LA” – MyNewsLA reports his 7×7 plan, but the rollout receives limited media attention and does not shift voter
“Mayoral Candidate Adam Miller Unveils ‘7×7 Policy Plan’ to Improve LA” – MyNewsLA reports his 7×7 plan, but the rollout receives limited media attention and does not shift voter sentiment, so the
May 5 2026
Further decline as political analysts highlight challenges for Raman to consolidate liberal base and gain endorsements late in the race
Nithya Raman plunges to 18%37%
Late entry disadvantages and intra-progressive divisions dampened market confidence.
May 4 2026
“Adam Miller, Los Angeles mayor candidate, 2026 primary election questionnaire” – Daily News publishes a routine questionnaire with no substantive policy announcements,
“Adam Miller, Los Angeles mayor candidate, 2026 primary election questionnaire” – Daily News publishes a routine questionnaire with no substantive policy announcements, reinforcing the perception of a low‑impact campaign and keeping the
May 1 2026
Controversy arises as Rae Huang accepts campaign donation from a streamer with a history of anti-Jewish remarks
Rae Huang dips to 1%1%
News of Huang accepting a maximum donation from a controversial Twitch streamer linked to anti-Semitic comments sparked negative publicity, contributing to a further decline in market support to 1%.
Apr 30 2026
Polls show Raman gaining ground as a progressive alternative amid dissatisfaction with Bass, peaking at 60% in market
Nithya Raman jumps to 60%7%
Growing public discontent with incumbent and Raman’s energized campaign pushed her market.
Apr 30 2026
“Adam Miller wants to fix a ‘broken’ L.A.” – Beverly Press & Park La Brea News highlights Miller’s modest campaign profile and his focus on the over‑budget LAX People Mover,
Adam Miller rises to 1%1%
“Adam Miller wants to fix a ‘broken’ L.A.” – Beverly Press & Park La Brea News highlights Miller’s modest campaign profile and his focus on the over‑budget LAX People Mover, offering no new momentum and leaving his market
Apr 21 2026
Raman releases campaign video emphasizing Hollywood industry revival and criticizes Bass’s handling of film liaison appointment
Nithya Raman jumps to 53%7%
This targeted messaging on economic and cultural issues resonated with voters concerned about Los Angeles’s entertainment sector.
Apr 20 2026
Rae Huang releases detailed plan to remove LAPD Chief and restructure police funding
Rae Huang rises to 5%2%
Huang's public proposal to overhaul the LAPD, including removing Chief Jim McDonnell and redirecting liability payouts, attracted media coverage and a slight market uptick, highlighting her focus on public safety reform.
Apr 2 2026
Karen Bass faces intensified criticism over homelessness, street conditions, and wildfire fallout as the primary election approaches, contributing to a low point in market
Karen Bass plunges to 23%19%
Karen Bass faces intensified criticism over homelessness, street conditions, and wildfire fallout as the primary election approaches, contributing to a low point in market confidence
Mar 31 2026
Raman’s campaign gains momentum with grassroots mobilization and endorsements highlighting her focus on housing and homelessness
Nithya Raman jumps to 47%12%
Her active volunteer-driven petition efforts and policy focus increased optimism about her viability.
Feb 20 2026
Rae Huang peaks at 9% market
Rae Huang jumps to 9%7%
Following campaign efforts and media attention, including outlining bold police reform plans, Huang's market.
Feb 12 2026
Raman publicly shifts stance on LAPD funding, moving from previous "defund the police" position to supporting increased police presence
Nithya Raman rises to 38%4%
This position change aligned her more closely with mainstream voters concerned about public safety, briefly boosting her market support.
Feb 7 2026
Deadline for mayoral candidate filing passes with Caruso absent;
Rick Caruso dips to 0%2%
other challengers enter race, confirming his non-candidacy and market
Feb 7 2026
Nithya Raman announces surprise bid for Los Angeles mayor hours before filing deadline, challenging incumbent Karen Bass despite recent endorsement of Bass
Nithya Raman plunges to 31%18%
This unexpected entry reshaped the race dynamics and introduced uncertainty, causing an initial sharp drop in her market.
Feb 5 2026
Poll shows Rae Huang with approximately 3% support in a crowded mayoral field
Rae Huang plunges to 8%42%
Early polling from UCLA Luskin indicated Huang's support at about 3%, signaling limited traction and causing a sharp market.
Feb 3 2026
Los Angeles Times reports Mayor Karen Bass allegedly altered wildfire after-action report;
Rick Caruso rises to 3%1%
Caruso expresses outrage and briefly reconsiders mayoral run, causing minor market uptick
Jan 7 2026
Pratt publicly criticizes Governor Gavin Newsom and city officials over wildfire mismanagement, including a lawsuit against the city and L.A.
Spencer Pratt drops to 17%6%
Department of Water and Power, raising his profile as an outsider candidate
Jan 7 2026
Spencer Pratt announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor at the “They Let Us Burn” rally in Pacific Palisades, motivated by wildfire recovery failures and government accountability
Spencer Pratt jumps to 23%5%
Spencer Pratt announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor at the “They Let Us Burn” rally in Pacific Palisades, motivated by wildfire recovery failures and government accountability issues; this launch marked his entry into the race and initial market interest
Dec 13 2025
The Los Angeles City Ethics Commission releases the full list of 14 mayoral candidates, highlighting Alnajjar’s engineering background and policy focus, which briefly boosts his
Asaad Alnajjar jumps to 17%5%
The Los Angeles City Ethics Commission releases the full list of 14 mayoral candidates, highlighting Alnajjar’s engineering background and policy focus, which briefly boosts his perceived viability
Nov 15 2025
Rae Huang announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor, emphasizing housing for all, free transit, and economic justice
Huang formally entered the race as a progressive challenger to incumbent Karen Bass, introducing her platform focused on housing affordability and social justice, initially generating market interest at 50%.
Oct 17 2025
Arrest of a suspect charged with sparking the January 1 fire that led to the 2025 Palisades wildfire, intensifying scrutiny on city fire management and Bass’s leadership during
Karen Bass drops to 62%13%
Arrest of a suspect charged with sparking the January 1 fire that led to the 2025 Palisades wildfire, intensifying scrutiny on city fire management and Bass’s leadership during the crisis
Oct 1 2025
Karen Bass receives Trailblazer Award at Verdical Group’s Net Zero Conference for leadership on climate action and announces a new LADWP water conservation program for
Karen Bass drops to 63%8%
Karen Bass receives Trailblazer Award at Verdical Group’s Net Zero Conference for leadership on climate action and announces a new LADWP water conservation program for disadvantaged communities
Jan 7 2025
Rick Caruso deploys private firefighters and water trucks to protect Palisades Village during the Southern California wildfires, highlighting his active role in local crisis
Rick Caruso plunges to 13%23%
Rick Caruso deploys private firefighters and water trucks to protect Palisades Village during the Southern California wildfires, highlighting his active role in local crisis response and increasing his public profile
Oct 31 2024
Karen Bass participates in star-studded event honoring Rev.
Karen Bass surges to 77%17%
Al Sharpton’s 70th birthday in Los Angeles, highlighting her prominence in local political and civil rights circles
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan
"Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 11 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Karen Bass" di 53%, diikuti oleh "Spencer Pratt" di 25%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 53¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 53% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles" telah menghasilkan $1.6 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Oct 9, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles," jelajahi 11 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles" adalah "Karen Bass" di 53%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 53% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Spencer Pratt" di 25%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $1.6 million diperdagangkan pada "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta — sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 53¢ untuk "Karen Bass" di pasar "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 53% bahwa "Karen Bass" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 53¢ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham — keuntungan 47¢ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Pasar "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles" dijadwalkan diselesaikan pada atau sekitar Jun 2, 2026. Ini berarti trading akan tetap terbuka dan peluang akan terus bergeser saat informasi baru muncul sampai tanggal tersebut. Waktu resolusi tepat tergantung pada kapan hasil resmi tersedia, seperti diuraikan di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini.
Pasar "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 27 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "Pemilihan Wali Kota Los Angeles." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan