Recent internal polls released in early October show Democratic incumbent Don Davis leading Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout by 8-12 points in North Carolina’s 1st congressional district, bolstering trader consensus for a Democratic hold. The seat was redrawn in late 2025 to favor Republicans by roughly 8-12 points based on 2024 presidential results, turning a prior toss-up into a more competitive race for the two-term Air Force veteran. Buckhout, a retired Army colonel in a 2024 rematch, has faced setbacks including a prediction-market ban tied to betting on her own campaign. Early voting begins October 15 ahead of the November 3 election, with analysts rating the contest Lean or Tilt Republican while noting Davis’s fundraising edge and history of outperforming the district’s partisan lean.