Recent polling shows Iowa’s open U.S. Senate race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek remains closely contested, with a late September and early October average near even and the most recent Fox News survey giving Turek a narrow 49-47 edge among likely voters. Trader consensus assigns Hinson a modest lead, consistent with Iowa’s Republican lean in recent federal contests and Hinson’s Trump endorsement, yet offset by Turek’s stronger performance among independents, women, and suburban voters. Cost-of-living pressures rank as the dominant voter concern, boosting Turek in several surveys, while immigration favors Hinson. Two October debates and continued economic messaging will likely shape the final stretch before the November 3 election.