Skip to main content

Untuk trading di AS, kunjungi polymarket.us

icon for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
Dunia·Jerman

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

icon for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
Dunia·Jerman

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

No Next Chancellor before 2028 54%

Hendrik Wüst 16%

Markus Söder 13%

Boris Pistorius 9%

Polymarket
BARU

No Next Chancellor before 2028 54%

Hendrik Wüst 16%

Markus Söder 13%

Boris Pistorius 9%

Polymarket
BARU
icon for No Next Chancellor before 2028

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$2,234 Vol.

54%

icon for Hendrik Wüst

Hendrik Wüst

$275 Vol.

16%

icon for Markus Söder

Markus Söder

$649 Vol.

13%

icon for Boris Pistorius

Boris Pistorius

$595 Vol.

9%

icon for Katharina Dröge

Katharina Dröge

$156 Vol.

6%

icon for Jens Spahn

Jens Spahn

$145 Vol.

5%

icon for Alice Weidel

Alice Weidel

$200 Vol.

5%

icon for Felix Banaszak

Felix Banaszak

$340 Vol.

3%

icon for Tino Chrupalla

Tino Chrupalla

$153 Vol.

3%

icon for Heidi Reichinnek

Heidi Reichinnek

$120 Vol.

3%

icon for Lars Klingbeil

Lars Klingbeil

$128 Vol.

3%

icon for Sahra Wagenknecht

Sahra Wagenknecht

$146 Vol.

3%

icon for Carsten Linnemann

Carsten Linnemann

$128 Vol.

2%

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz’s position as chancellor since the 2025 election remains under pressure from the CDU’s sharp eastern state losses and the AfD’s record 43.8 percent result in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September, which national polls now show the AfD leading at 28–30 percent. Trader pricing for no change before 2028 at 53.5 percent, alongside modest odds for Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder, reflects recent CDU state-premier statements reaffirming party unity and a preference for policy delivery over a Kanzlertausch. Upcoming Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections on 20 September serve as immediate tests; further CDU underperformance could accelerate internal discussions or coalition strains with the SPD. Separation among contenders would likely require either a formal leadership challenge, a confidence vote, or sustained polling shifts that make replacement the clearest path to restoring voter trust before the 2029 federal election.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,268
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2028
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz’s position as chancellor since the 2025 election remains under pressure from the CDU’s sharp eastern state losses and the AfD’s record 43.8 percent result in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September, which national polls now show the AfD leading at 28–30 percent. Trader pricing for no change before 2028 at 53.5 percent, alongside modest odds for Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder, reflects recent CDU state-premier statements reaffirming party unity and a preference for policy delivery over a Kanzlertausch. Upcoming Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections on 20 September serve as immediate tests; further CDU underperformance could accelerate internal discussions or coalition strains with the SPD. Separation among contenders would likely require either a formal leadership challenge, a confidence vote, or sustained polling shifts that make replacement the clearest path to restoring voter trust before the 2029 federal election.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,268
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2028
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Terkait

icon for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

20%
icon for Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

50%
icon for Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

46%

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 13 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "No Next Chancellor before 2028" di 54%, diikuti oleh "Hendrik Wüst" di 17%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 54¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 54% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 15, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?," jelajahi 13 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" adalah "No Next Chancellor before 2028" di 54%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 54% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Hendrik Wüst" di 17%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.