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icon for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Politik·Jerman

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

icon for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Politik·Jerman

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$2,384,857 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$2,384,857 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30, 2026

$307,404 Vol.

1%

October 31, 2026

$78,884 Vol.

9%

December 31, 2026

$1,998,569 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent state election defeats have intensified scrutiny of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's position. His CDU party recorded its worst postwar result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20, 2026, falling below the 5% threshold and exiting the state parliament, while the AfD secured first place. Similar losses occurred in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks earlier and in Berlin, where the Left Party led. These outcomes reflect voter dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition's reform agenda on taxes and pensions amid sluggish economic growth. Merz has reaffirmed his commitment to remain in office, complete the term, and advance legislation, with no immediate leadership challenge emerging within the CDU. The coalition partners have signaled continued cooperation for now, though internal strains over policy adjustments persist. Upcoming CDU leadership meetings and state-level coalition talks could influence stability ahead of the next federal election cycle.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$2,384,857
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent state election defeats have intensified scrutiny of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's position. His CDU party recorded its worst postwar result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20, 2026, falling below the 5% threshold and exiting the state parliament, while the AfD secured first place. Similar losses occurred in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks earlier and in Berlin, where the Left Party led. These outcomes reflect voter dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition's reform agenda on taxes and pensions amid sluggish economic growth. Merz has reaffirmed his commitment to remain in office, complete the term, and advance legislation, with no immediate leadership challenge emerging within the CDU. The coalition partners have signaled continued cooperation for now, though internal strains over policy adjustments persist. Upcoming CDU leadership meetings and state-level coalition talks could influence stability ahead of the next federal election cycle.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$2,384,857
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 3 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "December 31, 2026" di 19%, diikuti oleh "October 31, 2026" di 9%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 19¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 19% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?" telah menghasilkan $2.4 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?," jelajahi 3 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?" adalah "December 31, 2026" di 19%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 19% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "October 31, 2026" di 9%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.