President Masoud Pezeshkian continues to hold office without any constitutional vacancy that would trigger an Iranian presidential election under the 50-day snap-vote rule. Iran's framework calls for such an election only after the death, resignation, or confirmed incapacity of the sitting president, with the Guardian Council then naming an interim leader. No such development has occurred in recent months, and earlier unverified reports of internal strains or health concerns have not materialized. Pezeshkian's schedule of public engagements, including meetings with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains active. The next regular contest lies outside the June 30, 2026 window under the standard four-year cycle. Trader consensus therefore prices the outcome at 98.3 percent for no election, reflecting the absence of any structural catalyst. A sudden leadership transition before the resolution date stands as the sole realistic path that could still shift probabilities.