**The high implied probability on "No" (94.5%) reflects the Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid acute pressures.** Following the February–March 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders, the Assembly of Experts quickly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps consolidated control over security and decision-making without major elite defections or institutional breakdown. Protests that began in late December 2025 over currency collapse and economic hardship evolved into broader anti-regime demands but were met with a sustained crackdown involving hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests; demonstrations have since subsided without reaching critical mass or prompting security force fractures. External sanctions and naval measures have intensified fiscal strain, yet the regime has maintained coercive capacity and navigated leadership transition within the existing constitutional framework. With only weeks remaining until 2027, these factors underpin trader consensus that regime change is unlikely in the narrow resolution window.