The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 nationwide protests over economic hardship and currency devaluation, followed by U.S.-Israeli military strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces contained unrest through coordinated crackdowns, internet restrictions, and arrests without widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or military. The regime completed an orderly leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized command structures, and maintained institutional cohesion through factional management and ongoing appointments despite sanctions and inflation. As of mid-August 2026, no verified developments indicate imminent overthrow, though economic pressures and sporadic dissent remain key variables that could influence future assessments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiYa
7% peluang
$24,758,517 Vol.
$24,758,517 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
7% peluang
$24,758,517 Vol.
$24,758,517 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 nationwide protests over economic hardship and currency devaluation, followed by U.S.-Israeli military strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces contained unrest through coordinated crackdowns, internet restrictions, and arrests without widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or military. The regime completed an orderly leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized command structures, and maintained institutional cohesion through factional management and ongoing appointments despite sanctions and inflation. As of mid-August 2026, no verified developments indicate imminent overthrow, though economic pressures and sporadic dissent remain key variables that could influence future assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$24,758,517Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 nationwide protests over economic hardship and currency devaluation, followed by U.S.-Israeli military strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces contained unrest through coordinated crackdowns, internet restrictions, and arrests without widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or military. The regime completed an orderly leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized command structures, and maintained institutional cohesion through factional management and ongoing appointments despite sanctions and inflation. As of mid-August 2026, no verified developments indicate imminent overthrow, though economic pressures and sporadic dissent remain key variables that could influence future assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,758,517Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 nationwide protests over economic hardship and currency devaluation, followed by U.S.-Israeli military strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces contained unrest through coordinated crackdowns, internet restrictions, and arrests without widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or military. The regime completed an orderly leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized command structures, and maintained institutional cohesion through factional management and ongoing appointments despite sanctions and inflation. As of mid-August 2026, no verified developments indicate imminent overthrow, though economic pressures and sporadic dissent remain key variables that could influence future assessments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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