The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent leadership transition under interim councils and Mojtaba Khamenei underpins trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Coordinated security operations contained nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 without major defections in the Revolutionary Guards, while a June memorandum and ongoing management of Strait of Hormuz tensions have allowed institutional continuity amid sanctions and economic strain. No verified indicators of imminent overthrow, such as widespread military fractures or uncontrolled unrest, have emerged in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from tanker attacks or new leadership crises, though these remain low-probability events within the narrow resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2% peluang
$1,620,742 Vol.
$1,620,742 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% peluang
$1,620,742 Vol.
$1,620,742 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent leadership transition under interim councils and Mojtaba Khamenei underpins trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Coordinated security operations contained nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 without major defections in the Revolutionary Guards, while a June memorandum and ongoing management of Strait of Hormuz tensions have allowed institutional continuity amid sanctions and economic strain. No verified indicators of imminent overthrow, such as widespread military fractures or uncontrolled unrest, have emerged in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from tanker attacks or new leadership crises, though these remain low-probability events within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,620,742Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent leadership transition under interim councils and Mojtaba Khamenei underpins trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Coordinated security operations contained nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 without major defections in the Revolutionary Guards, while a June memorandum and ongoing management of Strait of Hormuz tensions have allowed institutional continuity amid sanctions and economic strain. No verified indicators of imminent overthrow, such as widespread military fractures or uncontrolled unrest, have emerged in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from tanker attacks or new leadership crises, though these remain low-probability events within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,620,742Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent leadership transition under interim councils and Mojtaba Khamenei underpins trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Coordinated security operations contained nationwide protests from late 2025 into early 2026 without major defections in the Revolutionary Guards, while a June memorandum and ongoing management of Strait of Hormuz tensions have allowed institutional continuity amid sanctions and economic strain. No verified indicators of imminent overthrow, such as widespread military fractures or uncontrolled unrest, have emerged in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from tanker attacks or new leadership crises, though these remain low-probability events within the narrow resolution window.
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