The high trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse by September 30 stems from the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience following the 2025–2026 protests and subsequent military strikes. Security forces maintained control through decisive crackdowns, with no widespread elite defections or military fractures emerging despite leadership transitions after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination. Interim governance structures under President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Supreme National Security Council have sustained authority, while economic pressures have not yet triggered cascading unrest capable of toppling the system in the narrow window. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden elite infighting, renewed mass protests overwhelming security responses, or unforeseen external diplomatic or military developments that accelerate internal divisions before the deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2% peluang
$1,633,703 Vol.
$1,633,703 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% peluang
$1,633,703 Vol.
$1,633,703 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The high trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse by September 30 stems from the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience following the 2025–2026 protests and subsequent military strikes. Security forces maintained control through decisive crackdowns, with no widespread elite defections or military fractures emerging despite leadership transitions after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination. Interim governance structures under President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Supreme National Security Council have sustained authority, while economic pressures have not yet triggered cascading unrest capable of toppling the system in the narrow window. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden elite infighting, renewed mass protests overwhelming security responses, or unforeseen external diplomatic or military developments that accelerate internal divisions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,633,703Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The high trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse by September 30 stems from the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience following the 2025–2026 protests and subsequent military strikes. Security forces maintained control through decisive crackdowns, with no widespread elite defections or military fractures emerging despite leadership transitions after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination. Interim governance structures under President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Supreme National Security Council have sustained authority, while economic pressures have not yet triggered cascading unrest capable of toppling the system in the narrow window. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden elite infighting, renewed mass protests overwhelming security responses, or unforeseen external diplomatic or military developments that accelerate internal divisions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,633,703Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse by September 30 stems from the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience following the 2025–2026 protests and subsequent military strikes. Security forces maintained control through decisive crackdowns, with no widespread elite defections or military fractures emerging despite leadership transitions after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination. Interim governance structures under President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Supreme National Security Council have sustained authority, while economic pressures have not yet triggered cascading unrest capable of toppling the system in the narrow window. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden elite infighting, renewed mass protests overwhelming security responses, or unforeseen external diplomatic or military developments that accelerate internal divisions before the deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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