Skip to main content
icon for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

13% peluang
Polymarket

$2,701,440 Vol.

13% peluang
Polymarket

$2,701,440 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 87.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting the absence of observable PLA force concentrations, amphibious logistics surges, or leadership directives indicating imminent offensive operations. Beijing continues prioritizing short-of-war coercion through air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and diplomatic outreach focused on Taiwan’s 2028 elections, while recent PLA purges and domestic constraints appear to heighten caution around high-risk military action. Taiwan’s record Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, involving reservist mobilization and drone-based “hellscape” defenses, alongside sustained U.S. and allied support, reinforce deterrence. Analysts note these dynamics align with historical patterns where full-scale invasion thresholds remain distant absent major escalatory triggers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,701,440
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 87.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting the absence of observable PLA force concentrations, amphibious logistics surges, or leadership directives indicating imminent offensive operations. Beijing continues prioritizing short-of-war coercion through air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and diplomatic outreach focused on Taiwan’s 2028 elections, while recent PLA purges and domestic constraints appear to heighten caution around high-risk military action. Taiwan’s record Han Kuang exercises in August 2026, involving reservist mobilization and drone-based “hellscape” defenses, alongside sustained U.S. and allied support, reinforce deterrence. Analysts note these dynamics align with historical patterns where full-scale invasion thresholds remain distant absent major escalatory triggers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,701,440
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 13% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 13¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 13% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" telah menghasilkan $2.7 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 17, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" adalah 13% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 13% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.