Recent U.S. intelligence assessments conclude that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timetable or current commitment to seize Taiwan by force, while bilateral diplomacy including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit has kept cross-strait tensions contained without major People’s Liberation Army exercises or mobilization signals in the past month. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to no invasion by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable escalation indicators and Beijing’s emphasis on political and economic pressure over amphibious operations. Sustained U.S. arms support for Taiwan alongside Chinese internal focus on ideological military priorities further reinforces this market consensus. Unexpected shifts could arise from sudden blockades, territorial incidents in the strait, or rapid deterioration in U.S.-China trade talks that alter deterrence calculations before the resolution window closes.