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Geopolitik·Putin

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

icon for Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Geopolitik·Putin

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

12% peluang
Polymarket

$161,398 Vol.

12% peluang
Polymarket

$161,398 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine remains locked in a strategic stalemate, with Russian forces suffering net territorial losses in April 2026 and recent U.S.-brokered ceasefire efforts collapsing amid mutual accusations of violations as of May 10. Massive Russian drone and missile barrages targeting Ukrainian infrastructure on May 13-14 underscore Moscow's focus on the existing conflict rather than opening new fronts, amid reports of slowed advances and tactical Ukrainian gains via drones. Sustained Western sanctions, equipment shortages, and domestic mobilization challenges limit Russia's capacity for additional invasions, such as into Moldova or Baltic states, fostering trader consensus at 88.5% for "No" through year-end despite rhetorical threats and NATO alerts in Sweden and Norway. Late breakthroughs or diplomatic shifts could alter odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$161,398
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine remains locked in a strategic stalemate, with Russian forces suffering net territorial losses in April 2026 and recent U.S.-brokered ceasefire efforts collapsing amid mutual accusations of violations as of May 10. Massive Russian drone and missile barrages targeting Ukrainian infrastructure on May 13-14 underscore Moscow's focus on the existing conflict rather than opening new fronts, amid reports of slowed advances and tactical Ukrainian gains via drones. Sustained Western sanctions, equipment shortages, and domestic mobilization challenges limit Russia's capacity for additional invasions, such as into Moldova or Baltic states, fostering trader consensus at 88.5% for "No" through year-end despite rhetorical threats and NATO alerts in Sweden and Norway. Late breakthroughs or diplomatic shifts could alter odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$161,517
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will Russia invade another country in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 12% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 12¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 12% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $161.4K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 19, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?" adalah 12% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 12% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.