Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on core issues including territorial control, security guarantees, and sanctions relief, with no comprehensive ceasefire agreement reached despite U.S. mediation. Short pauses occurred in May 2026 for Victory Day and earlier Orthodox Easter observances, accompanied by prisoner exchanges, yet violations were alleged and fighting resumed quickly. As of mid-August 2026, Ukraine has shared new proposals with U.S. negotiators while reporting limited battlefield gains; Russia has signaled openness to resuming talks focused on U.S. ideas but rejected limited measures such as a Black Sea ceasefire and tied any progress to its stated objectives. Upcoming Russian parliamentary elections in September could influence mobilization decisions, while ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts represent the main near-term catalyst for potential de-escalation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,894,091 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
11%
August 31
3%
December 31
26%
$5,894,091 Vol.
October 31
$845,808 Vol.
11%
August 31
$373,876 Vol.
3%
December 31
$2,137,075 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on core issues including territorial control, security guarantees, and sanctions relief, with no comprehensive ceasefire agreement reached despite U.S. mediation. Short pauses occurred in May 2026 for Victory Day and earlier Orthodox Easter observances, accompanied by prisoner exchanges, yet violations were alleged and fighting resumed quickly. As of mid-August 2026, Ukraine has shared new proposals with U.S. negotiators while reporting limited battlefield gains; Russia has signaled openness to resuming talks focused on U.S. ideas but rejected limited measures such as a Black Sea ceasefire and tied any progress to its stated objectives. Upcoming Russian parliamentary elections in September could influence mobilization decisions, while ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts represent the main near-term catalyst for potential de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$5,894,091Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on core issues including territorial control, security guarantees, and sanctions relief, with no comprehensive ceasefire agreement reached despite U.S. mediation. Short pauses occurred in May 2026 for Victory Day and earlier Orthodox Easter observances, accompanied by prisoner exchanges, yet violations were alleged and fighting resumed quickly. As of mid-August 2026, Ukraine has shared new proposals with U.S. negotiators while reporting limited battlefield gains; Russia has signaled openness to resuming talks focused on U.S. ideas but rejected limited measures such as a Black Sea ceasefire and tied any progress to its stated objectives. Upcoming Russian parliamentary elections in September could influence mobilization decisions, while ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts represent the main near-term catalyst for potential de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,894,091Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on core issues including territorial control, security guarantees, and sanctions relief, with no comprehensive ceasefire agreement reached despite U.S. mediation. Short pauses occurred in May 2026 for Victory Day and earlier Orthodox Easter observances, accompanied by prisoner exchanges, yet violations were alleged and fighting resumed quickly. As of mid-August 2026, Ukraine has shared new proposals with U.S. negotiators while reporting limited battlefield gains; Russia has signaled openness to resuming talks focused on U.S. ideas but rejected limited measures such as a Black Sea ceasefire and tied any progress to its stated objectives. Upcoming Russian parliamentary elections in September could influence mobilization decisions, while ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts represent the main near-term catalyst for potential de-escalation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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