The May 8 announcement by U.S. President Trump of a three-day official ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, running May 9–11 and paired with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, represents the clearest recent catalyst. Both sides publicly confirmed the mutual halt in military activity ahead of Russia’s Victory Day, meeting standard criteria for an announced agreement. This follows February Geneva trilateral talks and earlier short humanitarian pauses, establishing a verifiable de-escalation that traders view as satisfying resolution conditions by the May 31 deadline. Ongoing factors include reports of post-ceasefire violations, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy targets, and Russian statements tying any extension to Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas. Future diplomatic signals from Washington or Moscow could still influence whether a longer-term accord emerges before month-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$544,114 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
12%
October 31
37%
December 31
48%
$544,114 Vol.
May 31
$224,263 Vol.
3%
June 30
$183,328 Vol.
12%
October 31
$46,024 Vol.
37%
December 31
$90,660 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.The May 8 announcement by U.S. President Trump of a three-day official ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, running May 9–11 and paired with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, represents the clearest recent catalyst. Both sides publicly confirmed the mutual halt in military activity ahead of Russia’s Victory Day, meeting standard criteria for an announced agreement. This follows February Geneva trilateral talks and earlier short humanitarian pauses, establishing a verifiable de-escalation that traders view as satisfying resolution conditions by the May 31 deadline. Ongoing factors include reports of post-ceasefire violations, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy targets, and Russian statements tying any extension to Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas. Future diplomatic signals from Washington or Moscow could still influence whether a longer-term accord emerges before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$544,114Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.The May 8 announcement by U.S. President Trump of a three-day official ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, running May 9–11 and paired with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, represents the clearest recent catalyst. Both sides publicly confirmed the mutual halt in military activity ahead of Russia’s Victory Day, meeting standard criteria for an announced agreement. This follows February Geneva trilateral talks and earlier short humanitarian pauses, establishing a verifiable de-escalation that traders view as satisfying resolution conditions by the May 31 deadline. Ongoing factors include reports of post-ceasefire violations, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy targets, and Russian statements tying any extension to Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas. Future diplomatic signals from Washington or Moscow could still influence whether a longer-term accord emerges before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$544,114Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The May 8 announcement by U.S. President Trump of a three-day official ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, running May 9–11 and paired with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, represents the clearest recent catalyst. Both sides publicly confirmed the mutual halt in military activity ahead of Russia’s Victory Day, meeting standard criteria for an announced agreement. This follows February Geneva trilateral talks and earlier short humanitarian pauses, establishing a verifiable de-escalation that traders view as satisfying resolution conditions by the May 31 deadline. Ongoing factors include reports of post-ceasefire violations, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy targets, and Russian statements tying any extension to Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas. Future diplomatic signals from Washington or Moscow could still influence whether a longer-term accord emerges before month-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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