Traders assign overwhelming probability to "No" on the Russia-Ukraine Peace Combo because core disputes over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality, and security guarantees remain unresolved despite renewed trilateral talks. Recent U.S.-mediated discussions in Abu Dhabi and signals of limited energy-infrastructure pauses have not bridged gaps, with Russia insisting on maximalist demands including full Donbas withdrawal and NATO exclusion while Ukraine rejects concessions that cede occupied regions. Ongoing military operations, retaliatory strikes, and hardened positions from both sides underscore why a ceasefire combined with a formal peace deal by year-end faces steep barriers. Limited diplomatic openings could still shift momentum if major concessions emerge before December 31.