Diplomatic efforts under US mediation have intensified with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner holding talks in Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026, followed by a Trump-Putin phone call and signals of possible trilateral negotiations in October. Russia continues to demand control of remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk Oblast and other concessions on security issues, while Ukraine rejects unilateral territorial withdrawals and seeks stronger long-term guarantees. Moscow has signaled openness to limited de-escalation steps such as pauses on energy infrastructure strikes but shows no shift from its core demands, and reports indicate plans to escalate attacks through the winter. These entrenched positions and lack of breakthroughs sustain the high implied probability against a full peace agreement materializing before the end of 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
12% peluang
$2,768,296 Vol.
$2,768,296 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% peluang
$2,768,296 Vol.
$2,768,296 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Diplomatic efforts under US mediation have intensified with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner holding talks in Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026, followed by a Trump-Putin phone call and signals of possible trilateral negotiations in October. Russia continues to demand control of remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk Oblast and other concessions on security issues, while Ukraine rejects unilateral territorial withdrawals and seeks stronger long-term guarantees. Moscow has signaled openness to limited de-escalation steps such as pauses on energy infrastructure strikes but shows no shift from its core demands, and reports indicate plans to escalate attacks through the winter. These entrenched positions and lack of breakthroughs sustain the high implied probability against a full peace agreement materializing before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,768,296Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Diplomatic efforts under US mediation have intensified with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner holding talks in Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026, followed by a Trump-Putin phone call and signals of possible trilateral negotiations in October. Russia continues to demand control of remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk Oblast and other concessions on security issues, while Ukraine rejects unilateral territorial withdrawals and seeks stronger long-term guarantees. Moscow has signaled openness to limited de-escalation steps such as pauses on energy infrastructure strikes but shows no shift from its core demands, and reports indicate plans to escalate attacks through the winter. These entrenched positions and lack of breakthroughs sustain the high implied probability against a full peace agreement materializing before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,768,296Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic efforts under US mediation have intensified with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner holding talks in Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026, followed by a Trump-Putin phone call and signals of possible trilateral negotiations in October. Russia continues to demand control of remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk Oblast and other concessions on security issues, while Ukraine rejects unilateral territorial withdrawals and seeks stronger long-term guarantees. Moscow has signaled openness to limited de-escalation steps such as pauses on energy infrastructure strikes but shows no shift from its core demands, and reports indicate plans to escalate attacks through the winter. These entrenched positions and lack of breakthroughs sustain the high implied probability against a full peace agreement materializing before the end of 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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