Traders see negligible chance of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31 because formal trilateral negotiations, last held in Geneva in February 2026, have remained stalled amid unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments. Kremlin statements in mid-July confirmed no immediate resumption, while recent Russian positions continue to demand recognition of annexed regions and limits on Ukrainian forces. Short-term ceasefires earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing a framework. With roughly three weeks remaining, absent a sudden bilateral summit or major battlefield shift compelling rapid concessions, the timeline precludes the required diplomatic alignment. Late developments such as renewed U.S. mediation or unexpected military de-escalation signals could theoretically compress the process, though current positioning leaves little margin for such outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$229,185 Vol.
$229,185 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
$229,185 Vol.
$229,185 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders see negligible chance of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31 because formal trilateral negotiations, last held in Geneva in February 2026, have remained stalled amid unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments. Kremlin statements in mid-July confirmed no immediate resumption, while recent Russian positions continue to demand recognition of annexed regions and limits on Ukrainian forces. Short-term ceasefires earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing a framework. With roughly three weeks remaining, absent a sudden bilateral summit or major battlefield shift compelling rapid concessions, the timeline precludes the required diplomatic alignment. Late developments such as renewed U.S. mediation or unexpected military de-escalation signals could theoretically compress the process, though current positioning leaves little margin for such outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$229,185Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders see negligible chance of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31 because formal trilateral negotiations, last held in Geneva in February 2026, have remained stalled amid unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments. Kremlin statements in mid-July confirmed no immediate resumption, while recent Russian positions continue to demand recognition of annexed regions and limits on Ukrainian forces. Short-term ceasefires earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing a framework. With roughly three weeks remaining, absent a sudden bilateral summit or major battlefield shift compelling rapid concessions, the timeline precludes the required diplomatic alignment. Late developments such as renewed U.S. mediation or unexpected military de-escalation signals could theoretically compress the process, though current positioning leaves little margin for such outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$229,185Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see negligible chance of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31 because formal trilateral negotiations, last held in Geneva in February 2026, have remained stalled amid unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments. Kremlin statements in mid-July confirmed no immediate resumption, while recent Russian positions continue to demand recognition of annexed regions and limits on Ukrainian forces. Short-term ceasefires earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing a framework. With roughly three weeks remaining, absent a sudden bilateral summit or major battlefield shift compelling rapid concessions, the timeline precludes the required diplomatic alignment. Late developments such as renewed U.S. mediation or unexpected military de-escalation signals could theoretically compress the process, though current positioning leaves little margin for such outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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