Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including renewed naval blockades and IRGC warnings in late July 2026, represent the dominant driver keeping Strait of Hormuz transits well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 100 vessels daily. Recent maritime data show daily passages fluctuating between 6 and 40 ships amid security risks, elevated insurance costs, and selective routing, which supports trader consensus around the closely matched 50-74 and 75-99 weekly ranges at 44.5% and 42.5% implied probabilities. These levels reflect persistent uncertainty over enforcement actions and any near-term diplomatic easing that could lift volumes toward historical benchmarks, while downside scenarios tied to escalated threats favor the 25-49 band. Market-implied odds embed skin-in-the-game assessment of these geopolitical and operational frictions ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
50-74 44%
75-99 42%
25-49 36%
100+ 36%
BARU
BARU
Aug 9, 2026
<25
23%
25-49
36%
50-74
44%
75-99
42%
100+
36%
50-74 44%
75-99 42%
25-49 36%
100+ 36%
BARU
BARU
Aug 9, 2026
<25
$0 Vol.
23%
25-49
$0 Vol.
36%
50-74
$0 Vol.
44%
75-99
$0 Vol.
42%
100+
$0 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including renewed naval blockades and IRGC warnings in late July 2026, represent the dominant driver keeping Strait of Hormuz transits well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 100 vessels daily. Recent maritime data show daily passages fluctuating between 6 and 40 ships amid security risks, elevated insurance costs, and selective routing, which supports trader consensus around the closely matched 50-74 and 75-99 weekly ranges at 44.5% and 42.5% implied probabilities. These levels reflect persistent uncertainty over enforcement actions and any near-term diplomatic easing that could lift volumes toward historical benchmarks, while downside scenarios tied to escalated threats favor the 25-49 band. Market-implied odds embed skin-in-the-game assessment of these geopolitical and operational frictions ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including renewed naval blockades and IRGC warnings in late July 2026, represent the dominant driver keeping Strait of Hormuz transits well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 100 vessels daily. Recent maritime data show daily passages fluctuating between 6 and 40 ships amid security risks, elevated insurance costs, and selective routing, which supports trader consensus around the closely matched 50-74 and 75-99 weekly ranges at 44.5% and 42.5% implied probabilities. These levels reflect persistent uncertainty over enforcement actions and any near-term diplomatic easing that could lift volumes toward historical benchmarks, while downside scenarios tied to escalated threats favor the 25-49 band. Market-implied odds embed skin-in-the-game assessment of these geopolitical and operational frictions ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including renewed naval blockades and IRGC warnings in late July 2026, represent the dominant driver keeping Strait of Hormuz transits well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 100 vessels daily. Recent maritime data show daily passages fluctuating between 6 and 40 ships amid security risks, elevated insurance costs, and selective routing, which supports trader consensus around the closely matched 50-74 and 75-99 weekly ranges at 44.5% and 42.5% implied probabilities. These levels reflect persistent uncertainty over enforcement actions and any near-term diplomatic easing that could lift volumes toward historical benchmarks, while downside scenarios tied to escalated threats favor the 25-49 band. Market-implied odds embed skin-in-the-game assessment of these geopolitical and operational frictions ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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