Israel's airspace remains open but severely restricted following a fragile US-brokered ceasefire with Iran after February 2026 strikes and retaliatory missile barrages that prompted a full closure until early March. Ben Gurion Airport operates with limited commercial flights amid heavy US military presence, which Israel's civil aviation chief warned on May 11 has transformed it into a de facto base, slashing civilian slots and delaying foreign carriers' return. A May 4 high alert for potential closure due to escalation fears did not materialize, stabilizing trader sentiment, though the European Union Aviation Safety Agency extended its no-fly advisory through May 27 citing ongoing military risks. Upcoming diplomatic signals or Iranian proxy actions could trigger a major suspension of commercial aviation, as defined by Israeli aviation authorities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$835,175 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
33%
June 30
42%
$835,175 Vol.
May 31
$334,459 Vol.
33%
June 30
$5,467 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace remains open but severely restricted following a fragile US-brokered ceasefire with Iran after February 2026 strikes and retaliatory missile barrages that prompted a full closure until early March. Ben Gurion Airport operates with limited commercial flights amid heavy US military presence, which Israel's civil aviation chief warned on May 11 has transformed it into a de facto base, slashing civilian slots and delaying foreign carriers' return. A May 4 high alert for potential closure due to escalation fears did not materialize, stabilizing trader sentiment, though the European Union Aviation Safety Agency extended its no-fly advisory through May 27 citing ongoing military risks. Upcoming diplomatic signals or Iranian proxy actions could trigger a major suspension of commercial aviation, as defined by Israeli aviation authorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$835,175Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace remains open but severely restricted following a fragile US-brokered ceasefire with Iran after February 2026 strikes and retaliatory missile barrages that prompted a full closure until early March. Ben Gurion Airport operates with limited commercial flights amid heavy US military presence, which Israel's civil aviation chief warned on May 11 has transformed it into a de facto base, slashing civilian slots and delaying foreign carriers' return. A May 4 high alert for potential closure due to escalation fears did not materialize, stabilizing trader sentiment, though the European Union Aviation Safety Agency extended its no-fly advisory through May 27 citing ongoing military risks. Upcoming diplomatic signals or Iranian proxy actions could trigger a major suspension of commercial aviation, as defined by Israeli aviation authorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$835,175Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airspace remains open but severely restricted following a fragile US-brokered ceasefire with Iran after February 2026 strikes and retaliatory missile barrages that prompted a full closure until early March. Ben Gurion Airport operates with limited commercial flights amid heavy US military presence, which Israel's civil aviation chief warned on May 11 has transformed it into a de facto base, slashing civilian slots and delaying foreign carriers' return. A May 4 high alert for potential closure due to escalation fears did not materialize, stabilizing trader sentiment, though the European Union Aviation Safety Agency extended its no-fly advisory through May 27 citing ongoing military risks. Upcoming diplomatic signals or Iranian proxy actions could trigger a major suspension of commercial aviation, as defined by Israeli aviation authorities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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