Recent escalations in the Middle East, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, have sustained elevated risks of missile and drone threats to Israeli airspace from Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Multiple temporary closures of the Tel Aviv FIR occurred between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliations, with brief shutdowns also triggered by Houthi missile interceptions in June. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open, though EASA continues to highlight potential disruptions from ongoing border tensions and proxy actions. These patterns of intermittent closures amid fragile regional ceasefires and active conflict risks shape trader assessments of near-term shutdown probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$26,989,349 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
1%
August 31
6%
$26,989,349 Vol.
August 15
$958,573 Vol.
1%
August 31
$1,007,591 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the Middle East, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, have sustained elevated risks of missile and drone threats to Israeli airspace from Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Multiple temporary closures of the Tel Aviv FIR occurred between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliations, with brief shutdowns also triggered by Houthi missile interceptions in June. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open, though EASA continues to highlight potential disruptions from ongoing border tensions and proxy actions. These patterns of intermittent closures amid fragile regional ceasefires and active conflict risks shape trader assessments of near-term shutdown probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$26,989,349Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the Middle East, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, have sustained elevated risks of missile and drone threats to Israeli airspace from Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Multiple temporary closures of the Tel Aviv FIR occurred between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliations, with brief shutdowns also triggered by Houthi missile interceptions in June. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open, though EASA continues to highlight potential disruptions from ongoing border tensions and proxy actions. These patterns of intermittent closures amid fragile regional ceasefires and active conflict risks shape trader assessments of near-term shutdown probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,989,349Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in the Middle East, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, have sustained elevated risks of missile and drone threats to Israeli airspace from Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Multiple temporary closures of the Tel Aviv FIR occurred between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliations, with brief shutdowns also triggered by Houthi missile interceptions in June. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open, though EASA continues to highlight potential disruptions from ongoing border tensions and proxy actions. These patterns of intermittent closures amid fragile regional ceasefires and active conflict risks shape trader assessments of near-term shutdown probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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