Recent Houthi declarations of a naval blockade targeting Saudi vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, coupled with attacks on Red Sea installations in late July 2026, have sharply curtailed transits and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 36–46% across ranges, as participants weigh potential further escalation amid U.S.-Iran tensions against possible de-escalation or naval deterrence. Key swing factors include the pace of vessel diversions to the Cape route, shifts in tanker versus container volumes, and any near-term diplomatic or military developments that could stabilize or intensify chokepoint risks before month-end. These dynamics highlight how geopolitical friction directly influences shipping volumes and associated hedging activity in prediction markets.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
30-34 45%
35-39 44%
<25 41%
25-29 38%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
<25
41%
25-29
38%
30-34
45%
35-39
44%
40+
27%
30-34 45%
35-39 44%
<25 41%
25-29 38%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$83 Vol.
41%
25-29
$114 Vol.
38%
30-34
$56 Vol.
45%
35-39
$43 Vol.
44%
40+
$43 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi declarations of a naval blockade targeting Saudi vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, coupled with attacks on Red Sea installations in late July 2026, have sharply curtailed transits and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 36–46% across ranges, as participants weigh potential further escalation amid U.S.-Iran tensions against possible de-escalation or naval deterrence. Key swing factors include the pace of vessel diversions to the Cape route, shifts in tanker versus container volumes, and any near-term diplomatic or military developments that could stabilize or intensify chokepoint risks before month-end. These dynamics highlight how geopolitical friction directly influences shipping volumes and associated hedging activity in prediction markets.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$338Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETSumber Resolusi
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi declarations of a naval blockade targeting Saudi vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, coupled with attacks on Red Sea installations in late July 2026, have sharply curtailed transits and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 36–46% across ranges, as participants weigh potential further escalation amid U.S.-Iran tensions against possible de-escalation or naval deterrence. Key swing factors include the pace of vessel diversions to the Cape route, shifts in tanker versus container volumes, and any near-term diplomatic or military developments that could stabilize or intensify chokepoint risks before month-end. These dynamics highlight how geopolitical friction directly influences shipping volumes and associated hedging activity in prediction markets.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$338Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETSumber Resolusi
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi declarations of a naval blockade targeting Saudi vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, coupled with attacks on Red Sea installations in late July 2026, have sharply curtailed transits and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 36–46% across ranges, as participants weigh potential further escalation amid U.S.-Iran tensions against possible de-escalation or naval deterrence. Key swing factors include the pace of vessel diversions to the Cape route, shifts in tanker versus container volumes, and any near-term diplomatic or military developments that could stabilize or intensify chokepoint risks before month-end. These dynamics highlight how geopolitical friction directly influences shipping volumes and associated hedging activity in prediction markets.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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